Nearly a third of Manitobans less likely to visit Trump-led U.S.

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This article was published 28/12/2016 (3214 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — More than one-third of Manitoba women and one-fifth of men say the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States is likely to keep them from travelling south of the border, and the number is even higher among those with the biggest influence on spending.

A poll by Probe Research shows 29 per cent of Manitobans, just under one in three, said they would be less likely to visit the U.S. when Trump is president.

That could be the equivalent of nearly 300,000 people deciding to scuttle their regular shopping trips to Grand Forks or a family vacation in Disney World.

That number jumps to 37 per cent among Manitoba women, and a significant 49 per cent among women between 35 and 54 years old. Those are important distinctions because women typically are responsible for more spending decisions and more trips to the U.S. for Canadians. The U.S. Department of Commerce says women account for more than half of Canadian visitors to the U.S.

Overall, 70 per cent of men in Manitoba say Trump’s election will have zero impact on whether they travel south of the border or not, while 21 per cent say they will likely travel there less frequently.

Market research also suggests women are responsible for more than 90 per cent of spending decisions on vacations and 70 to 80 per cent of consumer purchases overall.

If one-third of Manitoba women choose to eliminate or reduce their trips to the U.S., the economic impact could be significant there. North Dakota reported more than 730,000 cars crossed into it from Canada in 2015. Anyone who has visited the Target in Grand Forks knows holiday weekends often see more Manitoba licence plates in the parking lot than American ones.

The Probe findings were taken in a poll conducted by phone of 1,000 Manitoba adults between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11. It is considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out 20.

The Trump effect on travel could be exacerbated by the expected drop in Canada’s dollar. Travel to the United States dropped by 13 per cent in the first part of 2016, a decline that began when the Canadian dollar began to drop in value compared with the U.S. dollar. Some predict the loonie could drop another 10 cents this year, to 65 cents against the U.S. dollar, which will impact U.S. travel because the cost will go up.

In 2015, the last full year for which statistics are available, Canadians made 20.7 million visits to the U.S. and spent almost $20 billion.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca