The end of Trudeau’s fairy tale

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/10/2019 (2150 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The 2019 federal election should have been a cakewalk for Justin Trudeau.

Just four years into the job as prime minister, the telegenic Liberal leader — who drew international praise for his progressive agenda to advance the rights of women, Indigenous people and visible minorities — should be basking in the glow of a successful first term in office.

Instead, Trudeau is fighting for his political life.

It’s not as if the Liberal leader chose to tackle difficult or controversial issues during his first term, the kind that usually requires politicians to expend substantial political capital.

There were no constitutional negotiations, no federal-provincial wrangling, no sweeping reorganization of government, and no changes to Canada’s electoral system (even though Trudeau had promised to eliminate first-past-the-post elections).

He pledged to usher in a new “nation-to-nation” relationship with Indigenous people. But other than eliminating a few dozen boil-water advisories in First Nations communities, he did nothing of the kind.

Trudeau didn’t have to balance the books “come hell of high water” like his predecessors did in the 1990s. He made no substantial changes to Canada’s justice system, even though he railed against the former Harper government’s mandatory minimum sentences. (The Liberals kept every one of them.)

In opposition, Trudeau complained about the Conservatives’ decision to reduce the growth of health-care transfers to the provinces. But he didn’t change that, either.

Trudeau’s first term in office was legislatively light and policy safe. He made a few tax changes and enhanced the former government’s child benefit cheques (Liberals previously mocked the payments as nothing more than pocket change parents would spend on “beer and popcorn”), but did nothing substantial.

Trudeau– for all his sloganeering and pronouncements about making generational change — is not much of a statesman. His legislative agenda is hollow, and his ability to transform platitudes into concrete action is almost non-existent.

Even Trudeau’s carbon tax is offset by income-tax rebates that will result in many Canadians getting more in tax refunds than they pay at the pumps. It will do virtually nothing to reduce greenhouse gases, but it’s a politically safe way to give the appearance government is doing something about climate change.

Legalizing recreational cannabis? Even that one, while controversial 10 or 20 years ago, was calculated as a relatively safe political move.

So why does Trudeau have almost no chance of being re-elected with a majority Monday?

Maybe that low-risk, low-reward approach will contribute to his downfall.

Trudeau has made his share of gaffes — the SNC-Lavalin affair being the most significant. The prime minister’s decision to politically interfere in a criminal prosecution (and the ensuing public battle with then-attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould) resulted in the single biggest drop in the polls for the Liberals.

There were other developments that hurt Trudeau’s brand, including his 2017 vacation to the Aga Khan’s private island in the Bahamas, his disastrous 2018 trip to India, and allegations he groped a female reporter in 2000.

The blackface/brownface affair didn’t help the Liberal leader in the middle of an election campaign, but it didn’t appear to move the needle in public opinion polls.

Trudeau has lost the allure he enjoyed when he first entered politics.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Paul Samyn | Editor's Note

Wednesdays

A weekly dispatch from the head of the Free Press newsroom.

Sign up for Paul Samyn | Editor's Note

Sign Up

I agree to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies, and CASL agreement.

It may not be due solely to the above-mentioned blunders, or revelations about his past. It may also be because Canadians are now seeing Trudeau for who he really is: a political lightweight with little to offer policy-wise, who was thrust into the leadership role solely because of his family name.

Trudeau — for all his sloganeering and pronouncements about making generational change — is not much of a statesman. His legislative agenda is hollow, and his ability to transform platitudes into concrete action is almost non-existent.

Trudeau may yet survive Monday, he could form a minority government. But he may also lose.

Either way, the Cinderella story about the son of a former prime minister who was supposed to transform Canada into a progressive utopia is over.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.