Batten down the hatches! Find my chequebook! Desperate Capt. Stefanson throwing $200M overboard in effort to keep Tories’ election hopes afloat
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Let the unofficial election begin. Heather Stefanson on Thursday made the first in what is expected to be a series of election-style announcements in the coming days, as the embattled Manitoba premier tries to rescue her government’s ship from the turbulent sea of provincial politics.
Call it the Raising the Titanic Tour.
With just over eight months to go before a scheduled Oct. 3 election, Stefanson — ranked the least popular premier in the country in 2022 in four successive Angus Reid Institute polls — is planning to announce $850 million in new spending.
The goal: turn public opinion around in time for a provincial election. The likelihood of success: almost non-existent.
Stefanson, standing with seven Tory MLAs in front of the produce section in a small St. James grocery store, promised Manitobans with household incomes under $175,000 a cheque for $225 (or $375 per couple). The payouts, oddly dubbed “carbon tax relief,” will help many who are struggling with inflation, especially low-income families facing soaring grocery and other costs. However, the fact high-income households are also eligible for the payouts is a clear sign the Stefanson government is trying to buy its way back into the hearts and minds of a broader base of voters.
If Stefanson were truly interested in helping those struggling with inflation, she would have lowered the income threshold, increased the individual amount and followed up with tax credits for low-income Manitobans in the upcoming budget.
Providing high-income earners with free government cheques is not only a waste of taxpayers’ dollars, it contributes to inflation, which will hurt low-income people the most. Government spending is inflationary. During periods of high inflation, governments must be extra careful not to spend needlessly, knowing that it can contribute to rising prices. Giving free money to high-income earners, many of whom will spend it on discretionary items, will contribute to higher prices. It’s bad policy. It may even be bad politics.
Vote buying in the run-up to an election is nothing new. Governments of all political stripes have been doing it for time immemorial. However, this one is especially egregious, since much of the $200 million earmarked for these cheques is going to people who don’t need it. Considering most people don’t like to be bribed by politicians, the payouts may not even have the desired effect the Tories were hoping for.
Stefanson said there is more to come. Provincial revenues are more than $1 billion higher than expected in the 2022-23 fiscal year. The Tories plan to spend most of it, including in health care and on municipal projects.
Will any of this change voters’ minds between now and October? Probably not. It’s mostly a case of too little, too late. There are times in politics when a critical mass of voters have made up their minds to toss out government, as there was in 2016 when Manitobans dumped former NDP premier Greg Selinger. Stefanson is in the same boat, which has taken on too much water to remain afloat. The time-for-a-change dynamic is too strong to overcome.
There have been nine consecutive Probe Research quarterly polls, spanning more than two years, showing the Tories in losing territory (11 polls if you consider Winnipeg alone, where elections in Manitoba are won and lost). That’s a lot of disapproval over a long period of time.
Stefanson, and former premier Brian Pallister before her, failed in too many areas to alter that. Stefanson had a chance to make wholesale change when she replaced Pallister in November 2021, but chose to maintain the lion’s share of his policies. She has not demonstrated that she has any ideas of her own, nor a vision on how to tackle tough issues in health care, education, child welfare or anywhere else. She mostly just occupies an office and regurgitates outdated political rhetoric given to her by others, the majority of which is directed at her Tory base. It’s not a recipe for electoral success.
The likelihood that any political party could climb out of the hole the Tories have dug themselves verges on the impossible.
No cabinet shuffle, no “refreshing” of political staff and no amount of free government money is going to change that.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom has been covering Manitoba politics since the early 1990s and joined the Winnipeg Free Press news team in 2019.
History
Updated on Thursday, January 26, 2023 8:32 PM CST: Corrects cheque total to $225 for single person
