Kinew speech powerful — and possibly dangerous

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This article was published 16/08/2023 (795 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It was NDP Leader Wab Kinew’s boldest speech to date. It was also his riskiest.

On Wednesday in an auditorium at Canadian Mennonite University, Kinew accused the governing Progressive Conservatives of using thinly veiled racism to scare Manitobans away from supporting the NDP.

The speech is a bold gambit to meet and defuse a potentially dangerous plank in the Tory campaign platform.

In his speech, Kinew talked about his alcoholism and the way it manifested in criminal charges. Kinew received a pardon in 2016 for an assault on a taxi driver, refusing a breathalyzer and breaching court orders. Domestic violence charges involving one of his former partners were ultimately stayed.

Kinew admitted what he did was wrong and pointed out how — over the last 20-plus years — he has worked diligently to put that version of himself into the rearview. He dovetailed his personal experiences with an ambitious agenda to re-invent government’s approach to addressing crime.

However, Kinew said the Tories’ campaign seems only concerned with reminding voters about his transgressions and his ancestry.

Kinew argued this strategy is “not about crime. It’s about me. And it’s at least partially about the fact that I’m somebody who sometimes wears my hair in a braid.”

Kinew is not wrong. Even though the Tories have walked a very fine line when it comes to attacking the NDP leader, there is little doubt they believe Manitobans are not ready to elect a First Nations first minister.

Although they’ve never missed an opportunity to portray Kinew as a “risk,” the Tories have always done it in a way that gives them plausible deniability about the messaging.

The Tories have long cited Kinew’s close association with former Premier Greg Selinger and the dumpster fire of a government that culminated in the NDP’s 2016 election thrashing. They’ve also frequently referenced the ill-fated decision to raise the PST by one point to fund infrastructure, a decision that served as the beginning of the end of Selinger’s government. That mistake now serves as an albatross around Kinew’s neck as the Tories spout largely made-up allegations the new leader would raise the PST to 10 per cent.

Kinew’s NDP has never suggested a PST hike. But, in the Tory world, New Democrats did it in the past so why wouldn’t they do it again?

However, the Tories have also kept the heat up on the NDP leader for his problems with the criminal justice system through advertisements and websites dedicated to the “risk” they believe Kinew poses to Manitoba.

“My political opponents want you to think that I’m running from my past. But actually, my past is the reason I am running.”–Wab Kinew

That is largely the rules of the game as far as electoral politics are concerned. Leaders and, to a lesser extent, candidates never enunciate the ugliest parts of the attack campaign. You leave that to social media posts, billboards and paid advertisements on radio and TV.

Is accusing the Tories of a race-based attack a winning strategy? The risk-reward equation here is pretty fascinating.

On the positive side of the NDP ledger, you have Kinew getting out in front of what many believe will be a potent plank in the Tory campaign.

Just about everyone expects the PCs will continue to remind voters of Kinew’s unsavoury past, augmenting those subtle messages with more aggressive attack ads.

Outing that strategy, and pointing the finger back at the Tories, could be very effective if it resonates with voters. That is to say, if voters hear Kinew’s story and sympathize with his efforts to reinvent himself.

And this is where we find the very real possibility the strategy will backfire.

The core of Kinew’s message is that he’s not the man he used to be, and there is abundant evidence to suggest that is both fair and true. But there is also a chance voters will only hear and remember words like “alcoholism” and “assault.”

The electorate is volatile right now. There is a huge risk that the more Kinew talks about these issues, the more people will associate him with them.

There should also be concerns that Kinew’s speech, and similar statements he will no doubt make when the writ of election is dropped, means the NDP is using a news media event to talk mostly about a Tory attack campaign. That goes directly against a strongly held belief among political strategists that you try to, as much as possible, avoid spending valuable campaign time talking about an opponent’s ideas.

The strongest and most effective point that Kinew made in his speech is that having experienced the justice system firsthand — and having escaped its clutches to achieve great things — makes him the perfect leader to find new ways of combating the current spike in violent crime and lawlessness.

“My political opponents want you to think that I’m running from my past,” Kinew said. “But actually, my past is the reason I am running.”

That’s an emotional gut-punch of a line that could, if some other elements break in Kinew’s favour, win a lot of hearts and minds as we head to election day. But it could also be a reminder of things Kinew would rather forget.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com