NDP’s sustained August barrage catches Tories, Liberals in vacation mode

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/08/2023 (784 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The provincial election campaign won’t begin officially until Sept. 5, when Premier Heather Stefanson is expected to visit Lt.-Gov. Anita Neville and ask that a writ of election be issued. That has not, however, stopped the NDP from getting an early start.

Starting on Aug. 8, the New Democrats have made no fewer than 15 platform announcements in 16 business days.

Most of the announcements represented major planks in the party’s platform: plans to recruit and retain more doctors and nurses; better rent controls; a freeze on Manitoba Hydro electricity rates; cuts to provincial gas taxes; enhanced $10-a-day child care; new tough-on-crime policies; policies to safeguard Indigenous women, girls and two-spirit people; and a pledge to reopen ERs in Winnipeg closed by the Tories.

NDP Leader Wab Kinew also found time to promise no tax increases of any kind, and no rollback of Tory-era tax cuts.

A few other, smaller promises were focused on specific ridings: a new “centre for justice” in Dauphin; more firefighters for the new Waverley West fire hall; community centre funding in Brandon. Mixed in with the true campaign announcements were a few days devoted to attacking the PC record on health care and, more specifically, the explosion in nurse overtime due to understaffing.

Why go so hard, so early?

On Aug. 3, a pre-election blackout on government announcements went into effect. Prior to that date, the Progressive Conservatives were engaged in a blizzard of government announcements. In the two months prior to the blackout date, the Tories rolled out nearly $1 million in taxpayer-supported advertising and made more than $2.5 billion in funding announcements.

There are, of course, risks and rewards with the strategy the NDP is utilizing.

On the risk side, it is generally assumed that in the dog days of August, voters are more concerned about black-fly counts and lake water levels than they are about election campaigns. In fact, it’s not unusual for incumbent governing parties to drop election writs in August precisely to lower interest and turnout.

There is also some risk the NDP simply runs out of things to say, or say so much that all its announcements begin to blur together.

On the reward side, an aggressive pre-writ approach has clearly given the NDP control of the political agenda in the province. Both the PCs and the Liberals have largely been caught off guard by the New Democrat policy blitzkrieg, leaving the daily headlines to focus on Kinew’s pledge of the day.

The Tories, in particular, seem flummoxed by the NDP approach. Since Kinew and his campaign team started to flood newsrooms with event notices and backgrounders, Stefanson and the Tories have made a couple of awkward token announcements in response.

Since Kinew and his campaign team started to flood newsrooms with event notices and backgrounders, Stefanson and the Tories have made a couple of awkward token announcements in response.

One was on launching yet another court challenge against the federal carbon tax. Manitoba has already lost one challenge and Stefanson’s decision to dust off a greatest hit from the Brian Pallister years seemed odd and hollow.

And then there was an announcement about steps to enhance parental rights in public education. In the wake of a spring that saw far-right elements attempt to get books and other materials banned from schools and public libraries, this was largely seen as pandering to a tiny and unpalatable constituency.

Outside of those odd announcements, the Tories have largely relied on their pre-election advertising campaign, which is focused almost solely on frightening Manitoba voters about the prospects of a government led by Kinew.

Billboards, bus benches and television commercials feature an allegation made by a former police officer claiming that violent crime will only get worse if Kinew is elected. That’s an odd assertion from a government that has overseen one of the most precipitous rises in violent crime in Winnipeg history.

The Liberals have taken what could be described as an NDP-lite approach.

Since the Aug. 3 blackout on government advertising, the Grits have made five campaign-style announcements: a same-day housing program for the homeless, along with new protections for renters; a climate-change strategy; new protections for seniors; a new independent business development bank; and a community safety and justice strategy that included a pledge to pay for 50 per cent of the cost of searching the Prairie Green Landfill north of Winnipeg for missing Indigenous women.

NDP insiders say their ‘go big and go early’ strategy is based on informed theories about how and when voters engage and disengage with election campaigns.

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In the NDP view, although August has traditionally been a dead zone, there is a working theory that as the month wears on and the rapidly approaching end of summer comes into focus, many voters begin to think about weightier issues.

The NDP also believes there are dead zones within the campaign itself. One NDP strategist noted that about two weeks into a 28-day campaign, voters tend to start tuning out because of announcement overload. They re-engage again later in the campaign when opinion polls are published and debates take place.

At this point, the biggest advantage the New Democrats believe they have is not having to share the campaign stage with anyone right now.

Even if it’s not officially the campaign stage.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.