The curious case of Stefanson’s no-shows

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This article was published 08/09/2023 (772 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Will less Heather Stefanson ultimately mean more votes for the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives?

In this, the first official week of the campaign, we’ve seen precious little of the Tory leader. She did a couple of pre-writ announcements in August, and was the centre of attention at the party’s campaign launch on Tuesday when she pledged more tax cuts and a balanced budget.

Since then, however, she’s been largely in the background.

She hosted a modestly attended rally in south Winnipeg on Wednesday night, but skipped two campaign announcements on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing a senior Tory MLA who’s running for re-election and a rookie candidate to take the spotlight.

And then, later on Thursday, media were notified about Stefanson’s intention to tour northern ridings several hours after she had left Winnipeg.

There is no doubt she has deliberately kept a low profile. The question is whether this strategy is about easing Stefanson into her first campaign as leader, or the beginning of a trend of giving voters less Stefanson in the hopes that it turns into more support?

It has been suggested by some observers that giving up the limelight might be a clever strategy to help give her candidates, particularly those in Winnipeg, additional media exposure. Others suggested it was a sign the Tory campaign wants to downplay Stefanson’s role because she is decidedly less popular than her party.

What’s the truth? Let’s deal with some more or less unambiguous realities of electoral politics.

First, it is not unusual for leaders to be less popular than their parties. There are lots of examples — Brian Pallister immediately comes to mind — where a lack of personal popularity did not translate into a drop in party support. Pallister won two majority mandates with very low approval numbers.

That said, it is worth noting that even though Pallister was a drag on the PC brand, he never stopped being the centre of attention on the campaign trail. Part of that may have been Pallister’s legendary narcissism. It may also have been because, in the 2016 and 2019 elections, the NDP and Liberals did not pose any serious threat.

This election is certainly not going to be anything like 2016 or 2019. In pre-election polls, the Tories hold onto a very slim lead provincewide but are trailing badly to the NDP in Winnipeg, where the majority of seats is located. Even if the election turns out to be a nail-biter to the end, in this campaign the PCs certainly cannot afford to ignore the popularity gap between the leader and party.

Second, let’s consider the suggestion that letting other candidates do announcements helps their chances on election day.

It may be a poor commentary on the news media, but when the leader is not part of a campaign announcement, there is less buzz and thus less attention from voters and journalists. In most elections, if you really want to give a bump to one of your candidates, the leader will hold an event in their constituency and let the vulnerable candidates photo-bomb the news conference.

It’s important to note as well that some of the Stefanson-free announcements were held in safe Tory ridings.

On Friday, Steinbach Tory candidate Kelvin Goertzen — perhaps the safest PC incumbent in Manitoba — was emcee for a pledge to double the charitable donation tax credit. It’s tough to imagine that Stefanson’s absence was a boost to Goertzen.

Thus, the suggestion that having the leader avoid campaign announcements altogether is a net benefit to other candidates seems far-fetched.

Finally, let’s consider the risks, if any, that Stefanson faces from essentially taking most of the first week off from the front lines of her party’s campaign.

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To date, the risk has been modest. But starting next week, the operational tempo of the campaign and the accompanying media attention will pick up substantially and include increased intensity on campaign pledges along with leaders debates and forums. Any effort to dial down Stefanson’s role in the campaign after she returns from the northern swing, would be extremely obvious and damaging to her chances.

Bottom line? The first official week of campaigning by Stefanson and the Tories has left many Manitobans — including a good number of loyalists in the party — scratching their heads. Stefanson’s absence was certainly the start of it, but there have been other aspects that are confusing, at best.

The northern tour is one. By the end of the campaign, Stefanson no doubt wants to tell everyone that she visited all 57 Manitoba constituencies and it’s good optics to go north at least once. But doing it this early suggests Stefanson and her campaign believe her presence in Winnipeg throughout the rest of the campaign will be essential.

A brisker pace, with more announcements and more media availability will quickly erase concerns about Stefanson’s role in the Tory campaign. But continued absences from the campaign’s front lines will only cement the idea the Tories believe the path to re-election goes around their leader, and not through her.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.