Tories at consequential crossroads for party’s, province’s political futures

Opinion

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This article was published 05/10/2023 (706 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative party is up for grabs. The party, destroyed at the polls in Winnipeg after Tuesday’s election, is facing an existential threat like never before, at least not since it added the “Progressive” moniker to its name in 1945.

There have been various incarnations of the party since then. Former premier Sterling Lyon was defeated after serving only one term in office from 1977 to 1981 because he was considered “too right” for Manitoba. Still, he was a Progressive Conservative.

The party has had fiscal conservative leaders, such as premier Gary Filmon, who held office from 1988 to 1999. Moderates have led the party, including Stuart Murray (2000 to 2006) and Hugh McFadyen (2006 to 2012), neither of whom won government. They all had different styles, but remained Progressive Conservatives.

Brian Pallister was a fiscal conservative who governed as an autocrat. His commitment to progressive ideas was questionable, but he was no social conservative. It’s highly unlikely Pallister would have signed off on the PC party’s hard-right, U.S.-style messaging during the recent election.

Heather Stefanson was a Progressive Conservative, but she allowed herself to get swallowed up by a dark, toxic wave of social conservatism and far-right dogma that swept through the party during the campaign. She embraced it at her peril.

The stench of this brand of U.S.-style conservatism has not lifted. It remains a threat to the future existence of the PCs and to Manitoba.

The question now is, who will take control of the party from here? The far-right zealots who hijacked the campaign, or the moderate, traditional Progressive Conservatives who have led the party since 1945?

The two factions are on a collision course, the result of which will have a profound impact on Manitoba’s political landscape.

The PC party’s sharp turn to the political right during the election was abhorrent. The attacks on the LGBTTQ+ community through “parental rights” rhetoric, the undermining of reconciliation efforts and the rejection of preventative and rehabilitative measures to combat crime were inconsistent with Progressive Conservative values.

This was not your parents’ or your grandparents’ Tory party.

Not all Tories were happy about it. Far from it. Many were aghast at the direction the party took during the campaign. Some are now trying to distance themselves from it, although none were principled enough to speak out about it at the time.

Now the battle begins to determine who will assume control of the organization as it prepares for a leadership race.

The Tories have a one-member, one-vote leadership selection system. That means it’s a wide-open process that allows anyone off the street — including hard-right zealots — to buy party memberships, even if they’ve never had a connection to the party.

The party hardliners, who are not “progressives” by any definition, are highly motivated. They are intoxicated by the success of the social conservative movement in the U.S. and in some parts of Canada, including in Alberta and, increasingly, Saskatchewan under Premier Scott Moe (also an opponent of LGBTTQ+ rights).

They are also aligned with the federal Conservatives and their “anti-woke” leader Pierre Poilievre (a party that dropped the “progressive” moniker in 2003 when it merged with the right-leaning Canadian Alliance party).

A hard-right takeover of the Manitoba PC party nearly happened in 2021 during the party’s leadership contest to replace Pallister. Leadership candidate Shelly Glover, a former Conservative MP, gained the support of the anti-vax and so-called “freedom convoy” crowd and came within a whisker of winning (she lost by only 363 votes against Stefanson in a 51-49 per cent split).

It could happen again, only this time the hardliners could emerge as the victors. That’s the danger inherent in a one-member, one-vote system, as opposed to a delegate selection process, which the party dropped in the early 2000s (the NDP still uses a delegate system).

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The prospect of hard-right zealots taking over the party isn’t just bad for the PC party, it would be devastating for Manitoba, which needs healthy competition in its electoral process. Democracy would be better served if the political landscape included a reinvigorated Liberal party and a Green Party that decided to become active year-round (not just in the few months leading up to a provincial election). Manitoba also needs a healthy Progressive Conservative party as an alternative to the NDP.

A hard-right takeover of the PCs would see the party shut out of Winnipeg (a politically moderate region), as it was during this election, leaving a gaping competitive hole in the capital city, home to 32 of the 57 seats in the legislature.

Progressive Conservatives can prevent that by launching an aggressive counter-offensive. To do so, they would have to recruit potential progressive leadership candidates and sign up new members, particularly from younger generations who can carry the progressive mantle forward.

Failure to do so could mean toiling in the political wilderness for decades. That would not serve democracy well.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.