Lessons from Manitoba on Poilievre’s parental rights gamble

Opinion

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This article was published 04/03/2024 (561 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It is certain now that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will officially carry the anti-LGBTTQ+ parental rights banner into the next federal election. Is this a strategic decision that will further the Conservatives’ electoral aspirations, or an anvil that will drag them back down towards the beleaguered Liberal government?

How and why the Tories have waded willingly into the epicentre of the parental rights debate is a fascinating backstory that demonstrates both Poilievre’s acute sense of political opportunism and his desperation to bring down the federal Liberal government.

It largely starts with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who announced in late January she would introduce legislation to ban “permanent and irreversible” surgeries for anyone under the age of 18, and puberty blockers and hormone therapy for anyone under the age of 16. Smith also said parents must be informed, and consent, to all youth 15 and under who wish to use a new name or pronoun.

In the aftermath, Poilievre found himself being asked increasingly about his own views. In Kitchener, Ont., on Feb. 21, in response to a question from a reporter, Poilievre agreed that trans women or “biological males” should be restricted from using female washrooms and locker rooms.

Poilievre’s frank comments stood in contrast to party strategy that seemed to be committed to steering clear of gender identity issues.

Conservative party members had passed a resolution last fall to ban “life-altering medicinal or surgical interventions” to treat “gender confusion and dysphoria” but Poilievre had not adopted it as official policy. Last fall, media reported the Conservatives sent out a memo to its MPs telling them not to comment on parental rights protests.

Take Smith’s parental rights agenda, mix in the comments from Kitchener and suddenly the Conservative party had a new banner to carry into the next election.

In an interview with The Hill Times this past weekend, Deputy Tory leader Michelle Lantsman declared Poilievre’s comments in Kitchener were, in fact, official party policy. “He has been very clear about the position of the Conservative Party,” Lantsman said, “and that is the position of the Conservative Party.”

That development seemed to have come as a bit of a surprise to others in the Conservative caucus. The Hill Times carefully documented efforts to get other Tories to comment on Lantsman’s declaration, with a number — including Alberta Tory MP Michelle Rempel Garner — literally running away from reporters rather than comment on the new, official party position.

If we accept this is, in fact, federal Tory policy, then the only remaining questions is whether it will help or hurt the party in the next federal election.

Although Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick have led the way in introducing anti-LGBTTQ+ policies or laws, to date only Manitoba has taken the issue for an election test drive.

Trailing badly in pre-election polls, the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives decided to go for broke by introducing two controversial policies: vague support for parental rights and a perverse celebration of the PC government’s refusal to pay for the search of the Prairie Green landfill, which police believe holds the remains of murdered Indigenous women.

It’s still hard to figure out what the Tories hoped to accomplish with the landfill plank. But on parental rights, PC strategists felt it would curry support among rural voters who had other, further-right parties to vote for, and increase support among social conservatives in immigrant communities.

Given the NDP won a convincing majority mandate, it’s pretty obvious the risks taken by the Tory campaign failed. Even so, there is some evidence parental rights may have saved the PC campaign from an even worse result.

The NDP won 34 seats with 221,000 votes, about 46 per cent of all votes cast. The PC party, on the other hand, won 22 seats but garnered 203,000 votes, or 42 per cent.

Poilievre might be tempted to view the Manitoba experience as an argument to go all-in on parental rights. Before he does that, he should remember that former Manitoba PC Leader Heather Stefanson never mentioned the words “surgery” or “puberty blockers” during the campaign; her parental rights pledge was vague and non-committal.

Now that he has waded into the specifics, Poilievre is squarely in the sights of a broad and well-connected coalition of opponents to the parental rights/anti-LGBTTQ+ agenda. Along with politically potent LGBTTQ+ activists, there will be strong condemnation by medical professionals, child welfare advocates and educators, all of whom will be quick to remind voters of the danger these policies pose for trans youth.

The Liberals have remained in power since 2015 largely because the Conservative party has been unable to build a right-of-centre coalition of voters that balances the interests of moderate conservatives and right-wing social conservatives. In that context, there is a very real risk that parental rights will fracture, rather than unite, that much-needed coalition.

Poilievre should remember that even in Manitoba, parental rights was not a winner. It only softened the blow for the losers.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com