NDP, Tories placed very different wagers with election campaign funds

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/04/2024 (541 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Thanks to the 1976 film All the President’s Men, political journalists know that good things happen when you “follow the money.”

Sometimes, that trail leads a reporter to some form of malfeasance. Other times, it provides greater insight into how politics works.

An opportunity to follow the money arose this week when the Manitoba New Democratic Party filed its annual financial return, a document that a good number of political reporters use in their pursuit and analysis of the role that money play s in politics.

When you combine the results of the annual return and the party’s return filed on expenses and fundraising for last fall’s election, a startling number comes to light: $2.3 million.

That is the total of money the NDP raised in 2023 both during and outside the election period. Although it’s not a record for all parties, it is the most money the provincial NDP has ever raised in this province.

The strength of that kind of fundraising has put the NDP into the enviable position of being debt-free at this stage of 2024. There was a small deficit at the end of 2023, but according to party officials, a slower but consistent trickle of post-election donations has erased the shortfall, leaving a surplus of about $150,000.

That financial position will improve even more when Elections Manitoba pays out the reimbursement of election expenses that all registered parties receive if they get at least five per cent of the votes cast in all 57 constituencies. Although it’s not known yet exactly how much additional money the NDP will receive, based on reimbursements in past elections it could be in the range of $500,000.

Although its 2023 financial performance was the best ever for the NDP, it is not the most money ever raised by a political party in Manitoba.

In 2016, also an election year, the Progressive Conservatives recorded an astounding $3 million in total income, which included $1.5 million in donations. The Brian Pallister-led Tories also recorded another $1.1 million in contributions and transfers during the election proper, for a total income in 2016 of $4.1 million, and a year-end surplus of more than a half-million dollars.

The NDP’s current financial fortunes, and those experienced by the Tories in 2016, are excellent examples of one of the foremost rules of the political jungle: donors love winners.

Currently, Premier Wab Kinew and the NDP are enjoying high levels of support from Manitobans. When a party wins an election and the right to form government — or even when threatening to win an election — it tends to draw way more financial support.

Growing support in the leadup to and during an election campaign also motivates longtime supporters to dig out their chequebooks after, perhaps, not donating in the recent past.

In the leadup to the 2016 election, for example, the Greg Selinger-led NDP had a hard time raising money from supporters who, quite frankly, didn’t consider him and his party worth saving. The result was a lower-than-expected spend on the 2016 campaign and a deficit at year end.

Along with the relative financial strength of both the NDP and PC parties, the annual and election returns provide other insights into how politics in this province works, including differences in how the two parties campaigned last summer.

The NDP spent a total of $1.8 million on its campaign, slightly more than the PCs’ $1.5 million. There were significant differences in the way the money was spent.

For example, the NDP provided considerably more support to individual candidates than the Tories did.

Well-funded parties that have a legitimate chance to win an election tend to transfer money to nominated candidates in closely fought ridings, with the hope of either retaining or stealing a seat. The NDP election return clearly shows it was on the offensive, transferring $326,000 to 54 different candidates.

The Tories, meanwhile, transferred out only $90,000 to 18 candidates. Given how close some of the battles were, it seems odd the Tories did not shore up their riding campaigns a bit more.

If the Tories weren’t supporting struggling candidates, what did they use the money for?

The Tories spent less on advertising ($642,000) than the NDP ($810,000), but more than twice as much ( $573,000) as the NDP ($237,000) on polling.

Election campaigns are a form of political gambling, where wagers are placed on specific strategies and tools. In last fall’s election, the Tories wagered heavily on paid staff and polling and lost to a party that spent more supporting candidates.

At least, that’s the story you find when you follow the money.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com