Too early to hail shoplifting crackdown

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/06/2024 (437 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Every few years police are called upon to target some area of crime politicians and the public perceive as growing out of control.

It usually begins with a flurry of meetings between police brass and elected officials. Together they agree that something has to be done about some recent surge in crime, whether it’s catalytic converter thefts, illicit drug offences or gun crimes.

This year it’s retail theft.

There is a perception that retail theft in Winnipeg has skyrocketed in recent years and more particularly in recent months. Whether that’s borne out in crime statistics is not yet clear. The most recent Winnipeg Police Service data available shows there were 4,155 incidents of shoplifting under $5,000 in 2022, up 37. 4 per cent from the previous year. That may seem like a big jump in a single year, but those numbers tend to fluctuate significantly from year to year.

The 4,155 figure is also 17.6 per cent below the rolling five-year average. One could argue that shows the situation is getting better over the long term, not worse.

But even that argument wouldn’t hold much water because like most property offences, many incidents of shoplifting aren’t reported to police.

In other words, police data doesn’t always give an accurate picture of criminal activity, especially in the short term.

Which brings us to the NDP government and the WPS’s claim this week that in just one month, their recent efforts to curb shoplifting has been successful.

Justice Minister Matt Wiebe and WPS superintendent of investigations Cam Mackid told reporters this week that their three-pronged strategy has significantly reduced shoplifting.

It’s possible, but it’s far too early to tell.

For starters, police haven’t provided any data to support their claim. Cops say they will release statistics on shoplifting in early July.

Presumably the latest joint effort will show shoplifting numbers in Winnipeg dipped in recent weeks compared with the same period last year and/or in previous years. Even if it did, it’s largely meaningless. Crime statistics bounce around all the time, from week to week, month to month and even year to year.

Crime data is only meaningful when trends are observed over time. If the number of shoplifting incidents were to fall consistently over several years, police and the province could legitimately claim the situation was improving. But data from a four-week period tells us almost nothing.

That’s not to say recent efforts by police and the province are not useful. They may even be successful over the long term if they keep those measures in place.

Those efforts include greater uniformed police presence in hot spot areas, undercover operations at certain retail outlets to effect arrests, and an education/awareness campaign launched by police to work with retail outlets to help them find ways to combat shoplifting.

Those are all smart and probably effective measures. The province is financing them by paying for the police overtime required to carry them out.

Whether it’s actually working will not be known next month when police release fresh data. The new measures would have to be in place for several years to show whether they’re truly effective. Even then, because property crime statistics fluctuate so much from year to year, those figures would have to be viewed with caution.

By then, the recent police-government campaign to curb shoplifting could be wound down. Like most of these ad hoc measures, they’re usually short-lived. Police eventually decide resources need to be shifted to some other crime hot spot.

The alternative is for the WPS to increase its policing complement, which is an option. Winnipeg’s police complement has decreased over the past five years, in part because the previous Progressive Conservative government froze annual funding to the WPS during that period. That’s not the only reason, but it’s one of them.

The “defund” police movement has put political pressure on all Canadian police forces to curb their costs in recent years. The WPS has been no exception.

Whether there’s a political appetite to bring the WPS’s per capita complement back to levels it was at five or 10 years ago remains to be seen. The only way that could be done is through provincial funding (the city doesn’t have the resources for it).

If police and the province are looking for more permanent solutions to shoplifting (and other areas of crime, including violent offences which have been growing in recent years) that could be something they are considering.

Either way, the public won’t know for at least a few years whether the recent shoplifting measures are having the desired effect.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca