Too late for a Liberal return to ‘radical centre’

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 13/01/2025 (269 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The only certainty for die-hard federal Liberals is they will have a new leader by March 9. Beyond that, uncertainty reigns over the entirety of the Gritdom.

Even with a new leader, where do the Liberals go from their current position: non-competitive with the Conservatives and only slightly more popular than the chronically non-competitive NDP? Former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien has a suggestion.

Return to the “radical centre.”

“It is a fundamental condition for the party to come back to be the radical centre, as I used to say, because it is what has been the Liberal party all along,” Chretien told CTV’s Question Period on Sunday.

Chretien is right. And he is profoundly wrong.

It is correct to say that one of the Liberal Party’s strengths — perhaps its greatest strength — has been its ability to appeal to the broadest constituency of voters by straddling the centre of the political spectrum, with a toe in both the left and right pond.

It’s also historically accurate to say Chretien’s “Red Wave” majority of 1993 was an excellent case in point: the Liberals campaigned on reducing the deficit to three per cent of GDP in their first term through intensive “program review” to improve the efficiency of the federal government, and tax cuts, most notably a promise to kill the hated GST (which never happened).

The Chretien Liberals won a strong majority; the Progressive Conservatives lost 154 of their 156 seats.

It’s hard to deny Chretien, a true electoral warrior, his say on the current plight of the Liberal party. But never have the words “that was then, and this is now” had more meaning.

What made the Liberals so daunting in the 1990s, and again in 2015 under Justin Trudeau, was that the presence of a constituency that embraced a government offering some semblance of a progressive agenda. Although not exclusively, that has largely been the Canadian condition: voters seem to like civilized, middle-of-the-road politics, shunning extremism of any particular disposition.

The former prime minister seems painfully unaware that voter sensibilities, at least the sensibilities of those currently most likely to vote, have changed dramatically since he thrashed Tory leader Kim Campbell.

You might remember the PCs created a seminal moment in the 1993 election with their decision to run a series of television advertisements attacking Chretien. The ads used images of the Liberal leader with unflattering facial expressions. Then, the catch-line: “I would be very embarrassed if he became prime minister of Canada.”

Although the PC campaign insisted the phrase was aimed at Liberal policies, many perceived it as an attack on Chretien’s partial facial paralysis, a condition brought on by Bell’s palsy. The Liberal war room immediately cried foul and the momentum Chretien had been building reached a crescendo by election day.

Chretien is not wrong to recall 1993 as a moment of great triumph for the Liberals. But the former prime minister seems painfully unaware that voter sensibilities — at least the sensibilities of those currently most likely to vote — have changed dramatically since he thrashed Tory leader Kim Campbell.

Today, it is highly unlikely any voter would blink at a personal attack ad that made fun of someone’s appearance. Attack ads have become increasingly edgy, with images and allegations that might have provoked a negative blowback three decades ago.

Times have changed. Now, centre-left and progressive governments all over the world are finding themselves falling in elections as voters embrace increasingly right-wing philosophies.

A combination of the pandemic and ensuing economic stresses — job losses, inflation, high interest rates, spikes in the cost of housing — have convinced many centrist voters not only of the need for change, but also the need to abandon progressive political ideology. Thus, the “anti-woke” political movement, something that would not have had much traction even a few years ago, is threatening to overwhelm the next Canadian election.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been masterful at integrating “anti-woke” sentiment into his political hyperbole. He has courted white nationalists, embraced the so-called Freedom Convoy protest and other off-shoots of the anti-vaccine and pandemic restriction movement, and stoked anti-immigration sentiments. In a recent interview with Winnipeg Jewish Review, Poilievre threatened to “fire government officials throughout my administration who are imposing a toxic woke ideology.”

Finding a political brand that serves as an effective counterpoint to Poilievre’s anti-woke crusade, a banner that is exceedingly effective and exceedingly vague at the same time, will be the next Liberal leader’s chief responsibility.

Even a few years ago, all of these things might have spelled doom for a political leader with a realistic shot at becoming prime minister. But Poilievre is recasting the rules of engagement with the knowledge that while a lot of centre to centre-left voters are struggling to decide who to vote for, an increasing number of angry, anti-woke voters are profoundly motivated to vote in the next election.

Finding a political brand that serves as an effective counterpoint to Poilievre’s anti-woke crusade — a banner that is exceedingly effective and exceedingly vague at the same time — will be the next Liberal leader’s chief responsibility.

It is unlikely that new brand, or renewed traditional brand, will arrive before the next election, which appears likely to be held sometime in late April or early May.

That means the new Liberal leader will be bracing for a thrashing with the hope that they can find their place on the political spectrum in time for the election after next.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca