It’s faint hope, but for Liberals, it’s all they’ve got

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/01/2025 (234 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The race to pick a new leader of the federal Liberal party has gone about as well as anyone could have expected.

It appears there will be five candidates vying to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The field includes the two acknowledged front-runners: former Bank of Canada/Bank of England governor Mark Carney; and the woman who knocked Trudeau from his perch with her devastating resignation from cabinet, former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland.

Not to dismiss the contributions that may come from the three lesser-known candidates — Frank Baylis, Chandara Arya and Jaime Battiste — but this race will be a battle of titans Carney and Freeland.

So, the race will feature two marquee candidates and a timeline that allows for a new leader to be installed by March 9, two weeks before Parliament is set to resume. That is good news for a party that has gone at least two years without much to celebrate.

However, the good news is pretty relative.

Right now, the suggestion that a new leader can, on his or her own, help the Liberals stay in power is the longest of long shots. A more realistic goal may be to hold the Conservatives to a minority government.

Trudeau’s unwillingness to step down until his government was staring down certain defeat on a confidence motion that was sure to be introduced in late January has left the Grits with precious little time to both pick a new leader and refresh the party brand.

Still, if hardcore Liberals — and there are still some left — want to view the party’s glass as half-full, they could focus on two issues.

Firstly, the carbon tax — the main plank in the Conservative election strategy — will be off the board. Both Freeland and Carney have said they will cancel the federal tax, a politically astute strategy that will leave Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre with a warehouse full of “axe the tax” T-shirts and nowhere to wear them.

The Conservatives were extremely successful in using the carbon tax to bludgeon the Trudeau government. Although most of the Tory allegations about the tax are false — Poilievre claimed it had boosted inflation and single-handedly led to the spike in grocery prices — he turned it into the most unpopular Liberal policy.

Removing the carbon tax from the electoral board puts a huge crimp in Poilievre’s talk track. Nobody thinks this alone will save the Liberals, but it’s a negative development for the Conservatives.

Secondly, the Trump factor. One of the more fortunate bits of timing for the Liberals is that they will still be in power when Donald Trump is inaugurated Monday. It’s fortunate because Trump is expected to announce a series of punitive tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S., a move that would set off a trade war that polls show would be welcomed by Canadians.

In general, most Canadians do not appreciate Trump’s musings about annexing Canada, or punishing Canadian businesses that export to the U.S. This has empowered the Liberals to prepare a series of counterveiling tariffs on U.S. imports and on key Canadian exports, such as oil and gas, to the U.S.

There is little doubt the Liberals will use the leadership campaign to flex in the shadow of the incoming Trump administration.

Freeland, for example, wrote a commentary for the Toronto Star on Friday that promised “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation for any tariffs.

She pledged to use the additional revenue generated by tariffs — which she estimated at more than $150 billion — to provide subsidies to Canadians hurt by higher prices.

“Canada is America’s largest export market — bigger than China, Japan, the U.K., and France combined,” Freeland wrote. “If pushed, our response will be the single largest trade blow the U.S. economy has ever endured.”

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Poilievre has threatened counter-veiling tariffs, but has balked on export tariffs on Canadian oil and gas sent to the U.S.

Liberal Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has floated the idea of either restricting supply or attaching export duties to Canadian oil and gas. Liberal leadership contenders have not formally endorsed that idea but before her departure from cabinet, Freeland frequently spoke about how Canada produces 60 per cent of all energy imports to U.S., and how a trade war could disrupt that relationship.

Poilievre won’t say whether he supports measures that affect oil and gas and his unwillingness to rattle that sabre suggests it’s an issue he has trouble navigating. If Canadians want their leaders to stand up to Trump, then Poilievre’s predisposition to leave oil and gas out of that fight could be problematic for the presumptive prime minister-in-waiting.

Neither of the two issues suggests salvation for the Liberals. Trudeau has dug his party into such a deep hole, it may be impossible to hear his successor trade barbs with Trump. However, for diehard Liberal supporters, it will be a source of hope — remote hope, but hope nonetheless.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.