Canada must stroke Trump’s ego — not start a trade war — to avoid tariff trouble

Opinion

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This article was published 28/01/2025 (221 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The most effective way to avoid a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian exports to the United States is to give its new president, Donald Trump, some political wins.

There’s no other way around it.

Trump is a narcissist. He is unstable and he uses threats, deceit and misinformation to get his way. Countries like Canada cannot use conventional means, like retaliatory trade sanctions, to combat those threats. Doing so against an economic powerhouse like the U.S. — which Canada relies on to maintain its high standard of living — is a losing proposition. It would not end well for this country.

Instead, the federal and provincial governments must find ways to convince the Trump administration to reverse or modify its tariff threat. That means giving the U.S. president some wins by acquiescing to some of his demands.

As distasteful and uncomfortable as that may sound, it is the best chance Canada has of avoiding an across-the-board tariff, or at least convincing Trump to lower the rate to something less punishing.

Beefing up border security by redeploying conservation officers, as the Manitoba government has just done, is one way of doing so.

The NDP government announced this week that conservation officers, who normally enforce laws regarding wildlife, are now patrolling the border between ports of entry, including secondary roads and background areas. The officers will work with the Canada Border Services Agency and the RCMP (who already police the border) as an extra set of eyes and ears.

It doesn’t matter what impact the new measure may or may not have on border security or whether it’s needed. That’s not the point. The point is to give Trump and his supporters some wins on the tariff threat to get the best possible outcome for Manitoba and Canada.

Trump has used a variety of illegitimate reasons for threatening to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, including the false claim that the U.S. trade deficit with Canada is a “subsidy,” and that criminals and illicit drugs pour into the U.S. from Canada.

Beefing up border security is one way of giving Trump a win to help avoid a 25 per cent tariff.

Canada and the U.S. share a border that spans 9,000 kilometres. It’s virtually impossible to police it 100 per cent.

Manitoba’s move to do so comes on the heels of the federal government’s decision to use Black Hawk helicopters and drones to patrol the Manitoba-U.S. border, part of its $1.3-billion border security upgrade plan in response to Trump’s threats.

Canada and the U.S. share a border that spans 9,000 kilometres. It’s virtually impossible to police it 100 per cent. The latest measures may do little to increase security, but that’s irrelevant right now.

Besides, there’s no real downside to it other than cost. The $360,000 Manitoba is spending to redeploy conservation officers and the $460,000 it’s spending to pay for RCMP overtime costs at the border is a small price to pay to help give Trump the political wins he needs to reverse or modify his tariff threat.

Manitoba also announced it’s opening a permanent trade office in Washington, D.C., to help convince states and industry of the benefits of bilateral trade between Canada and the U.S. It also established a U.S. Trade Council to give advice and direction on trade issues. These are all useful measures towards the ultimate goal of appeasing Trump.

The wrong way to go is what Liberal leadership candidate and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland is proposing. She said Canada should draw up a $200-billion list of retaliatory tariffs to target American imports and to consider cutting the U.S. off from Canadian government procurement (with the sole exception of defence spending).

She wants to stand up to the bully Trump. While she may see that as a winning strategy for her Liberal leadership bid, it would be bad — likely catastrophic — policy for Canada.

Trump doesn’t respond well to threats. Escalating the situation to an all-out trade war with the U.S. would hurt the American economy to some extent, but it would cause far more harm to Canada. It would be a bad outcome for Manitobans and for Canadians.

The most important work on this file will be through closed-door diplomatic efforts and through lobbying American industry and state governors, which the Canadian government is already engaged in. That will have far more effect than trying to go toe-to-toe with the Trump administration with dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs.

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Some tariff retaliation may be necessary at some point as part of a broader plan, should Trump act on his threat. But an all-out trade war with the U.S. would almost certainly plunge Canada into a deep recession, including massive job losses and widespread bankruptcies.

Canada’s response to Trump’s tariff threat must be measured. The federal government and the provinces must use smart and effective economic and political strategies, not emotional ones. Giving the U.S. president some wins, perceived or otherwise, would help further that cause.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.