Looks like Carney has the cards, and Trump has given them to him

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/03/2025 (186 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It is difficult during an election campaign to identify the moment when the race is over.

After the votes are counted, it is quite a simple process to go back with hindsight and identify the moment (or moments) when the outcome was decided. In real time, it’s almost never done.

However, this year, that could change. It looks more likely a simple phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Liberal Leader Mark Carney is going to be that mythical, seminal moment.

It started earlier this week when Trump confirmed he would impose a crippling 25-per cent tariff on automobiles manufactured in Canada starting April 2. Canada and other trading blocks, notably the European Union, made it clear they would respond with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

That led Trump to issue a dire, all-caps threat on social media that he would punish any nation or group of nations that seek to do “economic harm” to the U.S. with even bigger tariffs. It seemed that leaders on all sides of this conflict were determined to turn this skirmish into one of the most prolonged and destructive trade wars in history.

And then, something changed.

On Thursday, Carney confirmed White House officials had reached out to arrange a phone call with Trump. It was to be the first direct contact with Trump since Carney was sworn in as Canada’s first minister on March 14.

There was no reason to believe this call would be productive. Past exchanges between Trump and now-former prime minister Justin Trudeau were usually unproductive and occasionally profane.

But, moments after the call took place late Friday morning, Trump posted on social media that his call with Carney was “extremely productive” and that the two leaders agreed to meet after the election to talk about a wide range of shared issues.

“Thank you for your attention to this matter,” Trump said in his post.

Trump’s tariff and annexation threats against Canada have been skewing the electoral landscape in this country, breathing new life into what appeared just two months ago to be a moribund Liberal party. But with this latest and quite unexpected spasm of conciliatory language, Trump may have tipped the scales towards the Liberals once and for all.

The ultimate impact of Friday’s events will depend on the narrative voters embrace from this point on. There are two possible ways this story could break.

If Trump pauses tariffs, and voters do not want to give anyone credit for that development, there is a possibility the country will shift its attention to domestic issues, a scenario that would help the Conservatives.

However, if voters believe that Trump blinked in the face of Carney’s resolve, then they will likely reward the former Bank of Canada governor with a majority mandate on April 28. Opinion polls show the Liberals are very much in majority territory.

Did Trump blink? Even if he claims otherwise, the timing of events lends itself to that conclusion.

After Trump followed through with threats to impose tariffs on the automotive industry, and enhanced punishment for any nation that imposed counter-veiling levies, Carney was unflinching. On Thursday, Carney said it was clear “the United States is no longer a reliable trading partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back.”

Carney’s assertion that Trump has broken the relationship between the two countries is arguably the strongest language any Canadian leader has used in the trade war with the U.S. Normally, that kind of defiance would make Trump apoplectic, and trigger a thunderstorm of threats and insults.

Instead, Carney got a ‘hey, thanks for making the time to talk to me.’

The big question is whether the electorate will buy in to the “Trump blinked” narrative, or see this as something else. There are early signs that, even before the remarkable exchange between the two leaders, the electorate had decided the Carney Liberals are the best party to deal with the Trump threat to the Canadian economy.

An Abacus poll released on Thursday shows the Liberals were identified as the best party to manage the economy by a slim five-point margin. This result is quite remarkable.

The Conservatives are traditionally seen as the best party on economic issues; it’s almost a default position for voters, regardless of which party they end up supporting. As recently as a month ago, nearly half of respondents thought Poilievre and his party enjoyed a 26-point advantage over the Liberals on this question.

However, the challenge of managing the economy is now closely associated with the challenge of dealing with Trump. Voters are clearly convinced, for whatever reason, that the Carney Liberals are the best party for the moment. It is unlikely the Tories will be able to flip that perspective by election day.

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Just a week into the election campaign, the Tories are facing a classic Catch-22.

If Trump reverses course and attacks, Carney has shown he will not buckle.

If Trump remains conciliatory, then Carney looks like the Trump slayer.

Either way, nobody in the White House is reaching out to Poilievre for a phone call.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.