Stunning collapse in polls leaves Poilievre, Tories with little to do but hope Carney fumbles on way to goal line

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 02/04/2025 (184 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

To pivot or not to pivot? That is the question facing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as he barrels towards the midway point in the federal election campaign.

You would think some sort of change in tack would be required. As just about everyone knows, Poilievre and his merry band of Tories squandered a 26-point lead in most opinion polls and are now solidly ensconced in second place among decided voters.

What has happened to the Conservatives is not just bizarre. It is unprecedented in Canadian political history.

However, the glass-half-full perspective for Conservatives is that there are still three-plus weeks left in the campaign, a long enough period of time for the Tories to pivot and pull victory from the jaws of what seems like defeat right now. Unfortunately, that optimistic point of view ignores a fundamental problem facing Poilievre.

Pivot to what? Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your point of view), there is no shortage of suggestions.

It should be noted that there is a strong, right-of-centre constituency that doesn’t want Poilievre to pivot.

Crack open any edition of the National Post or any of the remaining Sun newspapers and you’ll see strident assertions that there is nothing wrong with Poilievre’s tone and message; it’s the electorate’s responsibility to adjust their expectations and realize that the Tories are the only choice in this election.

“Poilievre’s campaign message is strong,” thundered a headline for a Chris Selley column in the National Post. “You don’t throw away a strategy that has you at 38 per cent in the polls.”

Although it’s true that pre-election polling does not necessarily predict the exact outcome on election day, the idea that the Tories can hold firm and wait for voters to accept they’ve been wrong about Mark Carney and the Liberals seems to confirm a long-standing concern about the traditional media: that those who can, do and those who can’t, write columns. (I include myself in that analysis.)

Then there is the growing chorus of voices who want Poilievre to change tone and direction, and do it soon.

Peter White, who worked as principal secretary to former prime minister Brian Mulroney, wrote a detailed missive to Poilievre and the Tory brain trust in The Globe and Mail explaining how the party that was poised to win the election two months ago can shift strategy.

“It requires a radical shift in how (Poilievre) presents himself, and a re-calibration of the party’s campaign to a laser focus on (U.S. President Donald) Trump,” White wrote. “Mr. Poilievre must wrap himself in the mantle of Captain Canada; the leader who will embody and assert our sovereignty and our rise to greatness.”

He also suggested it may be necessary to dump campaign manager Jenni Byrne: “Admitting your mistake shows leadership.”

White is not wrong in his basic assertions. The Tories have to do something. But wrapping himself in the flag and refocusing his campaign on the threat posed by Trump seems overly simplistic and doomed to fail.

It is true that the Conservatives were inexplicably slow to acknowledge the change in election dynamics triggered by former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down.

For weeks after Trudeau succumbed to internal pressure, Poilievre and the verbose Tory communications machine were still blaming Trudeau for everything from inflation to the crappy spring weather. There was a period just before the election was called when they shifted tactics, but the biggest change appeared to be tasking party communications to scan existing Tory news releases so they could replace “Trudeau” with “Carney.”

The biggest shift Tories claimed they have made is the adoption of the “Canada First” slogan and updated messaging. Seemingly unaware that the slogan has a Trumpy “America First” vibe, Poilievre has jumped headlong into this messaging. So much so that when he answers questions at news conferences, he cannot start his response without first saying, “And that is why we’re going to put Canada first for a change.”

A television ad to support Canada First does, indeed, show the Tories are leaning into the “Captain Canada” motif.

In it, Poilievre abandons direct attacks on the Liberals, replacing them with an impassioned rant about the kind of country he wants to build for Canadians. It is an effective ad, even though its entire construct and tone seems to be less “Captain Canada” and more like the 2000 “Joe from Canada” ad campaign for Molson Canadian beer.

Can this ad help change Tory fortunes? It seems unlikely at this point that “Pierre from Canada” is going to make people forget about all the Trumpy things he said in the leadup to Trudeau’s resignation.

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When it comes right down to it, the Tories have little or no chance of regaining momentum on their own. Their only hope is that Carney inadvertently does or says something that undermines his reputation as the best leader to combat Trumpian aggression.

Unfortunately for Tories, Carney is the prime minister, and that allows him to not only tell people what he’d do to combat Trump, but also deliver on those assertions.

That leaves Poilievre in an unenviable position. While Carney does, Poilievre can only talk about what he intends to do.

That’s not a fair fight, and it’s not fertile ground for a comeback.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.