Carney’s calm, stable, competent campaign has him close to victory

Opinion

It wasn’t supposed to look like this. Not if you believed the polls four months ago. Not if you watched Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre barnstorming the country, spouting slogans about “freedom” and “firing the gatekeepers.”

And not if you assumed Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would finally break through in the Prairies or consolidate the progressive vote.

But here we are, less than a week before the federal election, and it’s Liberal Leader Mark Carney — the polished technocrat once dismissed as too aloof for politics — who seems poised to lead the Liberals back to power.

How did we get here? The short answer: experience, timing, and a series of blunders from his opponents. The long answer is worth exploring.

There’s no denying it — Carney has found his political stride. He and the Liberals have consistently been ahead in the polls since the beginning of the campaign by at least five percentage points. And they’re far ahead in key battlegrounds, including vote-rich Ontario.

Initially viewed with skepticism by party insiders and political observers, Carney was seen as the sort of elite banker who could explain macroeconomic stability but not connect with the average Canadian. But something changed this spring.

When the Liberals replaced a tired and bruised Justin Trudeau with Carney in March, they gambled that Canadians were tired of chaos and noise. And so far, the bet is paying off.

Carney’s resumé — former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England — gave him instant economic credibility, a valuable asset in a time of inflationary anxiety and geopolitical uncertainty.

But more important than credentials, he’s offered something that neither Poilievre nor Singh has managed to: calm.

With tensions escalating between Ottawa and U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadians are looking for a leader who won’t take the bait.

Carney hasn’t. His response has been firm but measured, calling for trade stability and stronger national sovereignty.

It helps that Carney appears competent. Competence may not trend on TikTok, but it polls well in the suburbs and in coffee shops.

Poilievre entered 2025 as the odds-on favourite. His brand of sharp-tongued populism — honed during the pandemic with YouTube videos and anti-Trudeau rally cries — seemed to tap into a frustrated electorate. For a while, it worked. Polls had the Conservatives consistently ahead, and Poilievre was packing halls across the country.

Then the Trump factor kicked in and the world changed. And Poilievre couldn’t change with it.

While Carney was giving calm interviews about global trade and economic resilience, the Conservative leader was still peddling slogans about axing the carbon tax and blaming “gatekeepers” for housing costs. To many Canadians, it started to feel like he was running for opposition leader, not prime minister.

Then there was the security clearance debacle. Poilievre, citing political reasons, refused to obtain the highest level of national security clearance — a move that baffled former diplomats and intelligence officials. At a time when foreign interference and cyber threats are top of mind, it made him look unserious. Worse, it made voters wonder: What’s he hiding?

Add to that his increasingly Trump-like rhetoric — “Canada First” banners, not-so-subtle digs at multiculturalism, and questionable dog whistles — and it became easy for the Liberals to paint him as too risky, too reckless, and too out of step with Canadian values.

Poilievre’s base still loves him. But that won’t be enough to win this election.

And what of Singh?

The NDP leader is a charismatic politician. He connects well with young voters, is likable, and has avoided any major scandals. But charisma only goes so far without a clear message.

The problem with the NDP in this campaign is that no one really knows what they stand for anymore. Are they a bold alternative to the Liberals? Or are they just the conscience of a Liberal minority government?

Worse still, Singh’s policy proposals — on housing, climate, and pharmacare — have largely been drowned out by the louder Liberal and Conservative campaigns. In trying to appeal to both his left flank and moderate centrists, Singh has ended up pleasing no one in particular.

As a result, the NDP is once again facing seat losses in key battlegrounds like Vancouver Island and northern Ontario, where the Liberals have regained momentum under Carney.

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There’s still time for surprises, but the momentum is clearly with the Liberals. Carney is not a retail politician in the classic Canadian sense — he’s no Jean Chrétien. But what he lacks in political flair, he’s making up for with discipline, steadiness, and vision.

In an age of polarization and political spectacle, Canadians may be opting for something simpler: stability.

So while Poilievre rails against the establishment and Singh struggles to define his relevance, Carney has been quietly convincing voters that boring might be best — at least for now.

That, it seems, is how you win an election in 2025.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.