Obstruction-laden mining policies chasing away investors, giving Manitoba’s economy the shaft

Opinion

If you were running a province that ranked seventh among Canada’s 10 provinces in GDP per capita, you might think you would do everything in your power to attract business investment.

You would especially think that if you were the premier of a province that receives one of the highest per-capita equalization payments from Ottawa in the country.

After all, economic growth isn’t just a “nice to have.” It’s the fuel that powers the “social cart” Premier Wab Kinew likes to talk about. Without it, there’s no money to fund the health-care system, no resources for the education system and no path to paying down a provincial debt that’s been climbing for years.

And yet, according to a recent survey by the Fraser Institute, Manitoba is one of the least-attractive provinces in Canada for mining investment. Not just mediocre. Not middle of the pack. Near the bottom.

That’s not just embarrassing, it’s costly.

Mining is not some relic of the past. It’s a multibillion-dollar industry that’s modernized and expanded into critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel — the very resources the world needs for electric vehicles, renewable energy storage and advanced manufacturing. Global demand is projected to skyrocket over the next two decades.

But if you’re a mining company executive flipping through the Fraser Institute’s annual mining investment survey, Manitoba isn’t looking like a very attractive place to put your money these days.

The survey ranks mining jurisdictions based on policies and geological potential. The geology in Manitoba is promising, there’s no question about that. The problem is policy.

Manitoba scores poorly in key areas, including regulatory uncertainty, inconsistent permitting timelines and a lack of clarity around land access. In short, it’s a headache for investors to operate here.

Manitoba scored 58.88 on the Fraser Institute’s policy perception index. Only Nova Scotia ranked lower among the provinces, at 13.55.

Companies can find nickel, copper and gold in other provinces, places where governments are actively courting investment, streamlining approvals and ensuring stable policy environments. So why would they put up with Manitoba’s red tape?

Kinew has said repeatedly that “the economic horse needs to pull the social cart.” On paper, that’s exactly the right message. The trouble is, when it comes to mining, the government isn’t putting that philosophy into practice.

Mining is one of the fastest ways Manitoba could attract billions in private-sector investment. Mines create hundreds of well-paying jobs in rural and northern communities, generate spinoff business opportunities, and pump significant tax revenues into provincial coffers.

Those revenues could help fund hospitals, schools and social programs without leaning even harder on federal equalization.

Yet Manitoba is doing the opposite. The Fraser Institute survey suggests the province’s policies are actively deterring investment. That’s a baffling choice for a province that keeps saying it wants to grow its economy.

Manitoba has only four mines operating right now. It could do much better.

The provincial government received nearly $4.7 billion in equalization payments from Ottawa in 2025-2026, the most per capita west of New Brunswick.

Equalization isn’t free money. It’s a reminder that Manitoba’s economy isn’t generating enough own-source revenue to stand on its own.

There’s nothing inherently shameful about receiving equalization. That’s what the program is for — helping provinces with weaker economies maintain comparable services. But it becomes a problem when a province starts treating it as a crutch instead of a safety net.

The more Manitoba relies on Ottawa, the less urgency there is to fix the underlying problems. And when it comes to mining, that complacency is costing the province dearly.

The global race for critical minerals is heating up. And yet, despite sitting on rich deposits, Manitoba is barely in the game. Instead of positioning itself as a top-tier mining jurisdiction, it’s letting other provinces and countries scoop up the investment dollars.

It’s not that Manitoba doesn’t have the resources. It does. It’s that the province is making it too hard, too slow and too uncertain for investors to get projects off the ground here.

Mining investment doesn’t just materialize overnight. Projects take years — sometimes decades — to move from exploration to production. That means the decisions Manitoba makes today will determine whether its economy benefits from the next wave of mining expansion, or whether the province is still relying on Ottawa.

Kinew is right about one thing: the economic horse does have to pull the social cart. But that horse isn’t going anywhere if the province keeps shutting the barn door on industries that could drive growth.

If Manitoba wants a stronger economy, lower deficits and less dependence on Ottawa, it needs to up its economic game — especially when it comes to mining.

Otherwise, the province will keep watching opportunity pass by, one billion-dollar project at a time.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca