Big promises but little transformation after two years of Kinew government

Opinion

Next Saturday marks the halfway point of Premier Wab Kinew’s first term in office. Two years in and the record is a mixed bag — part progress, part missed opportunity and plenty of unfinished business.

The New Democrats swept to power in 2023 with an ambitious agenda: fix health care, make life more affordable, end chronic homelessness and return the province’s books to balance by the end of their first term, among other things.

Lofty goals, all of them. And two years later, it’s clear how difficult governing can be once slogans meet reality.

On the most important file — health care — the results so far are disappointing. The Kinew government has made progress hiring more doctors, nurses and other front-line staff. The premier and Health Minister Uzoma Asagwara regularly tout the addition of more than 3,400 new health-care workers since taking office.

On paper, that sounds impressive. But for most Manitobans, what matters is not staffing numbers, but outcomes. And on that front, little has changed.

Emergency-room wait times remain near record highs and delays for some surgical procedures, such as hip and knee replacement, are at the worst levels in the province’s history.

The reopening of the Victoria Hospital emergency department, slated for 2027 (another election promise) may help at the margins, but it won’t address the core problem: the system’s inability to move patients through hospitals efficiently, owing largely to overcrowded medical wards and a shortage of long-term and home-care options.

The government’s promise to fix health care — the signature issue that helped it win the 2023 election — is, at best, a work in progress.

On affordability, the NDP’s record is murky. Inflation has eased somewhat, down to two per cent from 3.2 per cent in 2023. But that has far more to do with national economic trends than anything happening at the provincial level.

The government’s targeted affordability measures — such as pausing and cutting the provincial gas tax (albeit only slightly) and reintroducing the education property tax credit — have helped a bit around the edges. But most families haven’t felt a significant change in their cost of living. Food costs may not be growing as fast as they were several years ago, but they haven’t come down.

Manitoba’s finances remain in poor shape. The NDP promised to balance the budget by 2027, a commitment that looks increasingly fanciful. Manitoba continues to run historically large deficits and the province’s real GDP growth, at just 1.1 per cent last year, is the lowest in Canada. A sluggish economy means lower revenues and less fiscal room for spending promises.

Finance Minister Adrien Sala has warned repeatedly that the path to balance will be difficult, but so far, there’s been little sign of fiscal restraint. The province continues to pour money into health care, infrastructure, social programs, and bureaucracies, but without clear plans for how to reduce the red ink over time.

Unless the economy picks up significantly, Kinew’s promise to balance the books by the end of his first term will almost certainly go unfulfilled.

On homelessness, the picture is bleak. The government pledged to end chronic homelessness within eight years, a bold and compassionate promise that captured the moral tone of Kinew’s campaign.

But two years in, the problem is worse, not better. Winnipeg’s homeless population hit a record high of 2,469 people in End Homelessness Winnipeg’s street census on Nov. 5 last year. Shelters remain full, encampments are more visible and housing affordability is eroding as rents rise and vacancy rates remain low.

To be fair, the government has taken steps in the right direction. It’s partnered with community agencies to create more supportive housing, and it has launched programs to help people transition from encampments into permanent homes.

But progress has been slow, and the scale of the problem dwarfs the government’s response. Ending chronic homelessness will require not only sustained funding but also an expansion of social housing, mental health supports and addictions treatment — areas where the NDP has yet to deliver transformative change.

There are, of course, bright spots. The NDP’s environmental policies — including the new Path to Net Zero plan — show long-term thinking, even if the details and funding are still thin. On education, the decision to roll back years of austerity and reinvest in classrooms has been well received by teachers and parents alike.

The NDP made Orange Shirt Day a statutory holiday, as promised, and it ushered in more union-friendly labour laws, which rankled the business community but received strong support from organized labour.

Still, the defining issues that carried the NDP to power — health care, affordability and fiscal stability — remain unresolved. Two years in, Kinew’s government has shown it can manage, but not yet transform, the province.

The next two years will determine whether this government will be remembered as one that laid the groundwork for lasting improvement, or one that merely promised more than it could deliver.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca