Manitoba forced to tiptoe around Liberals’ immigration albatross

The NDP government posted a small item on its immigration portal on Oct. 8 that indicated Ottawa had agreed to a 30 per cent increase in the total number of immigrants admitted through the provincial nominee program.

Manitoba had protested the federal government’s decision late last year to cut Manitoba’s allotment under the program to just 4,750 from 9,700. As of last week, Ottawa had agreed to give Manitoba another 1,500 spots.

In its essence, this is a win for the NDP government on an issue it believes is critical for the immediate future of the provincial economy. So, why was this accomplishment so muted?

There was no news release, news conference or ministerial statement. The same goes for Ottawa; there was no obvious effort to publicize something that should be big news.

There’s something else going on here, but it’s not clear what.

First, some background on the nominee program and why it’s so important to Manitoba.

Smaller provinces such as Manitoba get most of their immigrants through the nominee channel, which offers expedited entry and residency to immigrants who are needed to fill a specific type of job. The modest population growth from the program is critically important to fuel economic growth and provide specific industries with trained workers.

Most provinces had their total admissions cut in half last year as former prime minister Justin Trudeau scrambled to curb years of aggressive immigration in the face of shrill attacks by the federal Conservatives, who blamed new Canadians for inflation and the high cost of housing. Although immigration is not responsible for either, the Tories used immigration to bludgeon the Liberals ahead of the last election.

The Manitoba government lobbied the Liberals for most of this year to increase the number of nominee program slots to 12,000. Being offered 1,500 additional slots when you had sought an increase of more than 7,000 was no doubt disappointing, but it’s not nothing.

Still, why would the NDP government not take some credit for getting the federal government to backtrack on its original cuts? This is a government that has, on occasion, tried to take credit for things it really has no influence over.

In this instance, it appears Manitoba is doing a solid for Ottawa.

Immigration politics has always been difficult for the federal government, particularly if the country is suffering economic distress. As Canadians bought into Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre’s anti-immigration rants, Trudeau jerked both knees and cut admissions across the board because he was desperate to stay Liberal leader and first minister.

The negative consequences of that decision are already being felt.

In September, Statistics Canada reported a sharp downturn in population growth largely due to immigration policies. The second quarter of 2025 (July-September) had total population growth of 0.1 per cent. In other words, growth has stagnated, which is horrible for the economy.

At the same time, Canada reached an all-time low birth rate in 2023. Both measures result in huge downward pressure on GDP growth.

Examined objectively, Ottawa’s decision to increase nominee slots could be positioned as a good news story for the Liberals and the Manitoba NDP, particularly since it has been applauded by a powerful coalition of leaders from provincial governments, the business community, post-secondary institutions and immigration advocates.

Despite that, the Liberals continue to show no interest in discussing immigration in any context.

Consider that months before increasing nominee slots for Manitoba, Ottawa did the same thing for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. In those cases, the provincial government argued successfully that immigration was not at the root of the housing shortage and inflation, and that a reduction in slots would have a devastating effect on their economies.

In each instance, Ottawa failed to make a formal announcement. The decisions were ultimately publicized, but only by immigration consultants, advocates and law firms that specialize in immigration issues.

Why are the Liberals so afraid of the shadow of their own immigration policies?

The public has bought into misinformation about immigration and is convinced Canada has too many people arriving in the country. For the first time in decades, opinion polls show that a small but identifiable majority of Canadians want to turn off the immigration tap because they fear — on largely false assertions — that immigration is at the root of our economic problems.

Housing is the best example to see the false dichotomy at work. Our housing crisis was decades in the making, and has more to do with bad decisions made by the provinces and local governments than Ottawa’s immigration program.

How should Manitoba handle a dilemma like this?

The NDP wants more nominee slots. As a bargaining chip, the government could promise Ottawa that it will not announce or acknowledge a future additional bump in admissions. And, that in fact, it will deny an increase took place.

In exchange for more admissions, Manitoba could offer a wink, a nod and a hope that the country comes to its senses.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca