Poilievre risks driving more moderate Tory MPs into Carney’s welcoming, majority-seeking arms

It wouldn’t be surprising if Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont wasn’t the last Conservative to cross the floor to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government.

D’Entremont’s defection this week — leaving Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives to sit with the Liberals — sent shockwaves through Ottawa. It’s not often you see a sitting MP jump ship from the official Opposition to the governing party, especially one with such a different political stripe. But it’s not hard to understand why it happened.

When Carney and d’Entremont walked side by side into Wednesday’s Liberal caucus meeting on Parliament Hill this week, they were greeted like heroes returning home. Liberal MPs erupted in thunderous applause and cheers. Some even began chanting d’Entremont’s name.

The optics were powerful: a moderate Conservative joining a government that, at least in tone, is positioning itself as the pragmatic centre of Canadian politics.

For the Liberals, it’s a major win. For the Conservatives — or more precisely, for Poilievre — it should be a major warning.

D’Entremont’s decision highlights something Poilievre still hasn’t figured out: you can’t win power in Canada by running a political operation modelled after the hard-right, grievance-driven style of the U.S. Republican party.

It may get you clicks and applause from the base, but it doesn’t translate into enough seats to form government — and it risks alienating both voters and members of your own caucus who don’t want to be part of that approach.

Poilievre has spent the past few years doubling down on the same Trump-like populist politics that have repeatedly failed to connect with mainstream Canadians. The anger, the endless attacks, the rage farming and the social media theatrics may energize his core supporters, but it turns off the broad middle of the electorate that actually decides elections in this country.

And that’s the danger for him now. There are still a number of moderate, pragmatic Conservatives in caucus — particularly in Atlantic Canada and Ontario — who have never been comfortable with Poilievre’s drift toward the far right. They see a leader more focused on fighting culture wars than proposing practical solutions to the issues most Canadians care about: affordability, health care, housing and the economy.

For MPs like that, the temptation to join a centrist Liberal government — that could be in power for several more years — may start to look appealing, especially when the alternative is sitting in opposition under a leader who seems more interested in being a social media celebrity than a serious prime minister-in-waiting.

The Liberals now hold 170 seats in the House of Commons — just two short of a majority. If they can convince two more MPs to cross the floor, Carney would have a majority — albeit a razor-thin one — capable of governing for the next 3 1/2 years without worrying about confidence votes.

That kind of stability would be a gift for any governing party, and you can be sure the Liberals are working the phones to see if anyone else might be ready to make the jump, maybe even by sweetening the pot with the promise of a cabinet post or a parliamentary secretary position.

Crossing the floor is never easy, and it’s still relatively rare in Canadian politics. But it does happen, usually when MPs feel their party has strayed too far from their own principles or when they see a government more closely aligned with their constituents’ interests.

If Poilievre keeps refusing to moderate his tone and broaden his party’s appeal, don’t be shocked if we see a few more follow d’Entremont’s lead. Politics is, after all, the art of power and influence — and for some Conservatives, there may be more of both to be found on the other side of the aisle right now.

If that happens, Poilievre will have no one to blame but himself.

Crossing the floor is not something MPs do lightly. It often comes with political risk — accusations of betrayal, angry constituents, and strained personal relationships with former colleagues. But it also happens when MPs feel their party no longer reflects their values or their constituents’ best interests.

It’s happened many times in the past. In 2018, for example, former Liberal cabinet minister Leona Alleslev crossed the floor to join the Conservatives, citing frustration with then-prime minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

Vancouver MP David Emerson left the Liberals in 2006 to join then-prime minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet two weeks after a general election.

In 2005, then-MP Belinda Stronach made headlines when she left Stephen Harper’s Conservatives to join prime minister Paul Martin’s Liberals — a move that saved Martin’s minority government from collapse.

History shows that while rare, these defections can have a major political impact. And with the Liberals now within striking distance of a majority, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Poilievre’s brand of politics might win him applause from the fringe, but it won’t win him government. And it may soon start costing him more than just votes. It could cost him his own MPs.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca