Election last thing NDP, Bloc want, so Carney in the clear… for now

It should come as no surprise to anyone watching Ottawa that the NDP and Bloc Québécois decided not to back the first non-confidence vote against the Liberal government’s budget.

This has little to do with what either party thinks of the actual contents of the budget and everything to do with political self-preservation.

The minority Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney survived the first of three confidence tests on its fall budget Thursday. The NDP and Bloc both decided not to support a Conservative amendment calling for major cuts to government spending. That decision, at least for now, keeps Carney’s government alive.

But make no mistake — this isn’t a vote of confidence in Carney or his fiscal plan. It’s a vote to avoid an election.

Neither opposition party wants to face voters right now. The Bloc knows it has little to gain from triggering an early campaign. And the NDP, which is still months away from selecting its new leader, wants it even less.

“The Conservatives want massive cuts to public spending. That’s exactly the opposite direction that New Democrats think we need to go in,” interim NDP leader Don Davies said before Thursday’s vote.

That’s a convenient talking point, but it’s not what’s really driving the NDP’s decision. What’s driving it is timing — and self-interest.

The NDP is in the middle of a leadership vacuum. With former party leader Jagmeet Singh stepping down earlier this year and a convention scheduled for March, the party is trying to avoid political chaos. Triggering an election before then would force the NDP into a campaign without a permanent leader, with no time to rebuild its brand, clarify its message or prepare financially.

In other words, it would be suicide.

So Davies and his caucus of seven MPs are doing what all politicians in their position do when their survival is on the line — they’re stalling. They’ll talk about protecting Canadians from “Conservative austerity” and “defending public services,” but the real motive is avoiding a trip to the polls.

Even Davies all but admitted the NDP’s position could shift again.

“We had a discussion about the vote (Thursday) and we decided we’re going to vote no… and we’ll have a discussion (Friday) about the Bloc motion,” he said.

Translation: we’ll keep buying time and figure out later which way the political winds are blowing.

The Bloc’s reasoning isn’t much different. While leader Yves-François Blanchet is always quick to posture about standing up for Quebec’s interests, his party also has no appetite for an election. The Bloc’s support has plateaued, and there’s no guarantee it could improve its seat count in a new campaign.

For both the Bloc and the NDP, this is about risk management — not fiscal philosophy.

That reality leaves the Liberals with just enough breathing room to get through three confidence tests over the next few weeks. For now, they can count on opposition MPs’ fear of the ballot box to keep them afloat.

Carney’s team knows full well this reprieve is temporary. The prime minister may have dodged a bullet, but his government remains vulnerable. The budget will face two more confidence votes in the coming weeks, and each will test the shaky alliances keeping this minority government in power.

Still, the dynamics are clear: no one wants an election, especially Canadians.

That’s been the story of federal politics since 2019, when Canada first entered its long era of minority rule. Governments survive not because of conviction or shared purpose, but because the parties propping them up are terrified of the alternative.

Every prime minister leading a minority government understands that survival is often about exploiting the opposition’s weaknesses. Right now, the NDP’s weakness is obvious — and Carney is more than happy to use it to his advantage.

As for the Conservatives, they’re playing their role, too — calling for spending restraint, balanced budgets and an end to what they describe as Liberal fiscal recklessness.

They know their amendment to the budget never stood a chance. But that’s not the point. The point was to frame themselves as the only party willing to take a hard stand against deficit spending.

Thursday’s vote was never about fiscal policy or ideology. It was about political calculus — who gains, who loses and who can survive another week.

The Liberals gain breathing room. The NDP and Bloc buy time. The Conservatives get to rail against overspending.

So when the NDP and Bloc MPs rise again in the House to vote against a confidence vote — in effect, keeping Carney’s government alive — don’t mistake it for conviction. This isn’t about budgets or ideology. It’s about survival.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca