Two reports, two views on crime, zero solutions

The release of two reports in the same week with radically different perspectives on the causes of crime reveals a lot about why we never seem to find a lasting solution.

The first report from the MacDonald-Laurier Institute is an accounting of crime data from Canadian census metropolitan areas. Although the data seems solid, we should take issue with the central premise of the study, which is that “some Canadian policy makers dismiss public concern over rising crime as unfounded fearmongering.”

That’s a pretty silly assertion.

It would be hard right now to find an elected official at any level of government who isn’t screaming bloody murder about crime of all types. Big city mayors and premiers are leading the howling class, clamouring for changes to the Criminal Code to address what has been presented as an unprecedented crime surge.

So, who are these “policy makers” dismissing rising crime? The report’s authors might be flagging longer-term data that shows police-reported crime rates are on a downward trend.

Yes, on a year-over-year basis, there has been a measurable increase in crime over the last few years but that has a lot to do with the drop off in crime during the worst years of the pandemic.

If you prefer to focus on short-term data, as the researchers clearly do, you could note that Statistics Canada reported earlier this year that the Crime Severity Index for 2024 decreased by four per cent. The non-violent index, which includes property and drug offences, was down six per cent.

Over the longer term, the rates of crime — including violent crime — has more or less plateaued at a level that is much lower than it was 30 years ago.

The only person who consistently claims that crime is out of control is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who portrays Canada as a post-apocalyptic hellscape. This is political hyperbole designed to exaggerate the state of crime while concurrently ignoring efforts to find solutions.

Our intrepid crime counters at the MacDonald-Laurier Institute fit perfectly into that context. Despite chastising anyone who would argue crime is not out of control, the researchers admitted they have “not attempted to propose policy solutions or speculate on what is driving this increase.”

Counting the crimes, but not putting in the time to identify the causes or solutions is academic malpractice. On behalf of an increasingly anxious nation, thanks for nothing.

This brings us to the second report released this week.

On Thursday, Dr. Ivan Zinger, the correctional investigator of Canada, delivered his final annual report. Zinger announced he was stepping down from his post two years early because of the federal government’s refusal to address chronic problems in the correctional system. Before leaving, however, he offered the results of a compelling investigation into the system’s failures to address mental illness or cognitive impairment.

Zinger noted that despite his better efforts to expose the correctional system’s shortcomings, there is no meaningful treatment provided to inmates that suffer from “acute psychiatric distress, suicidal ideation and chronic self-injury.” The same goes for cognitive impairments, an area of concern Zinger said is generally ignored throughout the global corrections sector.

The best part of Zinger’s report is how he quickly connects the lack of treatment and support to outcomes on the outside of prison: recidivism, homelessness, addictions and mental illnesses that manifest in criminal activity. In other words, we are adding to the burdens faced by the health care, social services and justice systems on the outside because we cannot provide even basic treatment inside.

Zinger concluded “it is abundantly clear that (Correctional Service of Canada) is fundamentally ill-equipped to provide long-term mental health care to individuals with serious mental illness.” This failure, Zinger noted, leaves many inmates trapped in a “feedback loop of recidivism” upon release.

Looking at the two reports, it’s pretty easy to see why we, as a nation, fail to provide any meaningful progress in reducing chronic crime.

Far too many politicians at all levels are focused in a debate about bail reform, implying that simply releasing fewer people will help reduce crime. This is the epitome of a red-herring fallacy, where hand-wringing over a tiny slice of a bigger problem, and marinating the debate in selective data analysis, serves to distract us from the real causes and solutions.

Alleviating chronic crime starts with preventative measures that divert younger people from a career in criminality. As Zinger argued, we also need much better correctional and community treatment for mental health and addictions. To ignore those two streams of proven and effective solution, while focusing on something as arguably meaningless as bail, traps us all in a gerbil wheel of pre-ordained outcomes.

We may not have all the solutions, but we should know by now that ignoring both the root problems and the foundational solutions will only make the problem worse. Or, at the least, ensures it will never get better.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com