Kinew’s early election feelers hint at Ottawa aspirations

Premier Wab Kinew’s musing about an early election call probably has more to do with his own personal agenda than it does about political strategy for the NDP.

Kinew said earlier this month he came close to calling an election after the Opposition “held up” Bill 48 (legislation to detain highly intoxicated people longer) and were “playing games” with the bill. That’s nonsense, of course.

Opposition parties routinely scrutinize government bills and sometimes delay their passage. But ultimately, majority governments have the authority and power to pass whatever bills they want, through the use of closure, if necessary.

Strategically, there is no compelling reason for Manitoba’s NDP government to go to the polls early.

The NDP is more popular today than it was in October 2023 when it won the provincial election.

Every poll since has shown the government with solid support across Winnipeg and holding its own in rural and northern Manitoba. Unless something dramatically changes, the NDP is poised to win another sound majority in the next election, scheduled for October 2027.

Governments facing those kinds of numbers don’t rush to the polls. They run out the clock, pass the legislation they want, and head into the next campaign with a long list of accomplishments.

Yet Kinew continues to flirt publicly with the idea of going early. It makes no political sense — at least not for the party.

But it might make sense for the premier.

Throughout his political career, Kinew has made no secret of his interest in federal politics. Before he was elected provincial NDP leader, he mused about running federally, where he could play a more direct role in shaping Indigenous policy — something that sits squarely under federal jurisdiction.

In Ottawa, he would have a national platform, a larger policy toolbox, and the ability to influence issues that matter to him on a broader scale.

That kind of move (more likely under a Liberal party banner than an NDP one) would be doable if he steps down as premier sometime after securing a second majority government.

It’s not hard to see the logic: run early, win big, stick around for a couple of years and hand the reins to a successor. The NDP maintains power and Kinew gets to move on to the next chapter of his political career sooner rather than later.

If that scenario sounds familiar, it’s because Manitoba has seen it before.

Former premier Brian Pallister called an early election in 2019 — three years into his first term — despite leading in the polls, despite a fixed election date the following year, and despite offering no convincing rationale for an early call.

Pallister never acknowledged it publicly, but it was obvious he wanted to shorten his time in office. He planned to retire early, and he did. He resigned less than halfway through the second mandate, although he was ultimately forced out as his party plummeted in the polls.

That early election had nothing to do with strategy and everything to do with the premier’s personal timeline.

Kinew may be contemplating a similar path. Not because he wants to retire, but because he may want to leave provincial politics earlier than the fixed election date allows.

Winning a second mandate earlier — say in 2025 instead of 2027 — would shorten the timeline to something that better suits his personal political agenda.

Kinew would never admit that publicly. No premier would. But politicians are human beings with ambitions, just like anyone else, and they don’t always align perfectly with the schedules imposed by fixed election dates.

None of this means an early election is actually going to happen. But the fact Kinew has raised the idea himself shows he’s at least thinking about it.

Leaders don’t float trial balloons without a reason. And because the strategic, party-centric reasons don’t add up, the personal explanation is the one that makes the most sense.

For the NDP, an early election offers no upside. They’re already secure. They already have a majority. Waiting two more years only strengthens their position and gives them more time to deliver on the promises they were elected to fulfill.

Calling an early vote risks irritating voters, disrupting government business, and inviting scrutiny for no tangible benefit.

But for Kinew personally, the benefit would be obvious: more control over his own political trajectory.

If Kinew wants to serve six years as premier instead of eight, an early election is the smoothest way to do it. And if he wants to move to federal politics, this is one way of getting there.

Whether Manitobans would approve of that motive is another question. Many wouldn’t. But unless the premier comes up with a more convincing rationale for why he’s musing about an early election, Manitobans are left to speculate.

And the most logical explanation is also the most straightforward: it’s not actually about the NDP’s fortunes.

It’s about Wab Kinew’s.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca