Storytime over; NDP needs to level with Manitobans about book-balancing promise

Anyone holding out hope that Manitoba’s NDP government will balance the books by 2027 — as Premier Wab Kinew pledged during the 2023 election and continues to insist is achievable — might want to take a close look at the latest economic forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.

Because if you thought the province’s fiscal picture looked grim before, the near-flatlining growth projected for 2025 all but guarantees that promise is headed for the scrap heap.

According to the Conference Board’s outlook released Monday, Manitoba’s economic growth will barely register this year. The province is expected to eke out a meagre 0.8 per cent increase in GDP — below the national average and far less than what any government would need to sharply reduce a projected $794-million deficit in just two years.

The province’s 2025 budget was based on projected GDP growth of 1.7 per cent this year. It’s now estimated to be half that, making the current deficit projection wildly optimistic.

You don’t have to be an economist to understand the political implications: sluggish growth means sluggish revenues. And sluggish revenues mean the NDP’s balanced-budget pledge is little more than a fairy tale repeated for political convenience.

The Kinew government insists it can still get there, clinging to that talking point at every opportunity. But at some stage, political optimism starts to look like delusion.

The Conference Board doesn’t sugar-coat why Manitoba is stuck in the mud. Years of global trade uncertainty — including the lingering tariff war between Canada and the United States and escalating Chinese tariffs on canola and pork — have hammered the province’s export-driven economy.

Businesses are delaying investment. Consumers are tightening their belts. Manitoba’s exports dropped by $312 million, or three per cent, in the first half of this year alone.

That’s not just a headwind. That’s a brick wall.

Richard Forbes, one of the Conference Board’s economists, warned that the worst thing for the economy is uncertainty — the kind we’ve seen drag on well past what anyone thought was possible.

The NDP’s path to balance assumed steady revenue growth, rising private-sector investment and an expanding workforce that would help broaden the tax base. But the Conference Board’s numbers show those assumptions no longer hold.

Yes, Manitoba’s young population and strong immigration numbers are bright spots. And yes, the unemployment rate is expected to fall modestly by 2027. But demographics alone won’t save a lagging economy.

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s deficit — $1.1 billion last fiscal year — continues to loom over everything. That’s before the government has even fully implemented its suite of expensive health-care promises, expanded capital spending and tax measures introduced since taking office. You can’t spend more, collect less and then be shocked when the red ink deepens.

The NDP repeats its balanced-budget promise as though economic conditions haven’t changed since 2023. They have. Dramatically. Pretending they haven’t is political theatre — and not a particularly convincing performance.

Even Forbes admitted the Conference Board may be underplaying the impact of public-sector spending pressures. In other words, that forecast — grim as it is — might be too rosy.

That’s the reality the Kinew government doesn’t want to admit. Balancing the budget by 2027 would require either deep cuts, significant tax increases or a sudden surge in revenue that simply isn’t coming. None of those options line up with the government’s messaging or its political strategy.

Kinew campaigned on stabilizing health care, fixing ER wait times, rebuilding the public service and expanding affordability measures. Those are costly ventures in good economic times. In a near-recessionary environment with declining exports? They’re fiscal landmines.

There’s nothing wrong with adjusting course when circumstances change. Governments do it all the time. But refusing to acknowledge reality isn’t leadership — it’s political spin.

The Kinew government needs to level with Manitobans. The 2027 balanced-budget pledge is no longer achievable. Not with this economy. Not with this deficit. Not in this time frame.

It’s time for the NDP to admit what the numbers make painfully clear: Manitoba isn’t on track to balance the books by 2027. And no amount of optimistic messaging will change the math.

If the government wants to build a long-term plan to grow the economy, attract investment and responsibly manage the province’s finances, great. Manitobans would welcome that. But first, the NDP needs to stop pretending that a $794-million dollar deficit will somehow disappear on its own.

Because unless something changes — and fast — Manitoba’s fiscal future won’t just be unbalanced. It will be unsustainable.

Manitoba needs a long-term strategy to grow the economy and to eventually balance the books within a realistic timeline. Right now, that’s not on the table.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca