NDP proclamations on affordability not grounded in reality

If the provincial NDP government is “making life more affordable” for Manitobans, as Premier Wab Kinew repeatedly insists, it’s getting harder to find evidence of it in the province’s inflation data.

The latest numbers from Statistics Canada suggest the opposite: despite the raft of affordability programs the government touts, Manitoba continues to face some of the highest price pressures in the country.

Manitoba’s consumer price index rose three per cent in October compared to the same month last year. That’s not only higher than September’s 2.9 per cent increase, it’s well above the national inflation rate of 2.2 per cent.

Canada as a whole saw inflation ease in October. Manitoba didn’t. Instead, the province posted the second-highest inflation rate among all provinces, behind only Quebec at 3.2 per cent.

It’s a result that raises a simple but important question: how can a government claim it’s making life more affordable when prices here are rising faster than almost anywhere else in the country?

The government’s answer, of course, is to point to its suite of affordability measures — lower gas taxes, $10-a-day child care, and most recently, changes aimed at increasing competition in the grocery sector.

The latest announcement, unveiled over the summer and highlighted again this week, centres on the removal of restrictive property covenants that grocery chains have long used to keep competitors out of certain neighbourhoods.

According to the premier, Manitoba is on track to become “the first jurisdiction in Canada to have true competition” in groceries. Twenty-three property controls have already been submitted for removal under Bill 31, the Property Controls for Grocery Stores and Supermarkets Act. Another 46 have been submitted for confirmation and are under review.

Kinew says this will help lower grocery prices. Maybe it will, someday. Increased competition can reduce costs in some markets.

But even if Bill 31 proves effective, it’s hard to see how it will have any measurable impact on prices in the near term.

And while the government trumpets its efforts to take on “big grocery,” Manitobans are left dealing with increases that have nothing to do with aisle-to-aisle competition.

The main driver of Manitoba’s higher inflation rate in October wasn’t food prices (although food prices do continue to rise). It was property taxes and special charges, which soared by an astonishing 19.5 per cent year-over-year — by far the biggest jump in the country.

It’s fuelled largely by higher sewer fees to pay for upgrades to Winnipeg’s beleaguered sewage treatment system, along with higher garbage fees.

Those are government-driven price hikes. And no amount of spin about grocery chains can cover up the fact that Manitobans are paying more because their municipal governments require more revenue.

This disconnect between rhetoric and reality is becoming a hallmark of the Kinew government’s affordability agenda. It’s not that the government hasn’t done anything — it has.

There’s no question the temporary gas tax holiday last year lowered the cost at the pump for a brief period, and $10-a-day child care saves families substantial money (if they can find a spot, which is a whole other issue).

But affordability isn’t measured by slogans or isolated examples. It’s measured by overall price levels. And when Manitoba consistently posts higher inflation than most other provinces it suggests something isn’t working.

The government could reasonably note that part of the inflation problem is outside its control. The ongoing U.S. trade war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs have increased the cost of goods across Canada, and those effects are captured in consumer price index data.

But all provinces are facing the same federal trade environment, and most are doing better than Manitoba.

What’s more, Manitoba’s inflation problem predates the October spike. The province has had above-average inflation for much of the past year. And while the NDP loves to blame its predecessors for virtually everything, it has now been in government long enough to own the results.

Manitobans aren’t seeing lower grocery prices. They’re not seeing lower rents. They’re not seeing cheaper property taxes. And they certainly aren’t seeing relief from the persistent cost pressures that keep showing up in the inflation numbers.

That’s the problem with the NDP’s affordability narrative: it focuses on high-profile announcements and ignores the broader economic picture. A modest cut to the provincial gas tax brought in earlier this year saves money, but it doesn’t fix the fundamental affordability issues driving Manitoba’s inflation rate upward.

If the premier wants to claim he’s “making life more affordable,” he needs more than anecdotes about grocery-store competition. He needs inflation numbers that actually show it.

Until then, Manitobans will have to settle for political messaging while the cost of living continues to climb.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca