Winnipeg voters so jaded, they can’t see small signs of progress

A note of warning to Winnipeg candidates who plan to run in this fall’s municipal election: voters are in a very bad mood.

Results from a Free Press-Probe Research poll on municipal politics show that a significant number of Winnipeggers are unhappy with the people running the city now, and despondent about the ability of anyone else to do a better job.

Mayor Scott Gillingham, who is seeking re-election, does not appear to have the confidence of many voters. The poll found only 19 per cent think he should be re-elected, while 46 per cent believe another unnamed candidate should be mayor. A solid minority (36 per cent) is unsure.

But here’s the real kicker: of the roughly 500 respondents, only eight per cent think the next mayor and council — whoever they might be — can do anything major to improve life in the city; 35 per cent say they might make a minor difference while 34 per cent think no matter who is elected, it won’t improve life.

The poll is not good news for Gillingham, even though he is the incumbent, and that is a powerful commodity. Short of some sort of scandal, or the rare arrival of a total rock star candidate, mayors who stand for re-election usually get what they want.

However, not to give Gillingham a pass on the poor performance review implied by this poll, but the results arguably say more about the troubled mindset of city dwellers living through the wake of the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic than they do about the quality of the mayor’s efforts.

The results arguably say more about the troubled mindset of city dwellers living through the wake of the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic than they do about the quality of the mayor’s efforts.

During the worst of the pandemic, cities experienced a lot of collateral damage. More densely populated communities suffered higher rates of infection, experienced more death, and had to work through more economic disruption and social dysfunction.

The result was a significant increase in homelessness, addictions, mental health and crime, both violent and retail shoplifting. Add high inflation and affordability concerns, and there was a profound sense the quality of life in cities had tanked and it wasn’t coming back.

The accompanying cynicism, distrust and anger — particularly over persistent, opportunistic inflation — has made municipal electorates cranky and pessimistic.

Oddly, there is evidence from other opinion surveys that some members of the public understand full well why some of the conditions in cities are so harsh: local governments in this country are being held hostage to some extent by limited sources of revenue and growing lists of needs.

Winnipeg is in a particularly difficult situation, as the former Progressive Conservative government decided to significantly reduce support to municipalities before and during the worst years of the pandemic. The new NDP government has back-filled some of what was cut, but not by an amount that would make up for what the city lost.

That leaves Gillingham and council in a difficult spot. Gillingham has raised property taxes in every year he has been in power. Given the fiscal situation faced by the city, it has been the right thing to do, but it has also taxed the patience of homeowners.

Back to those previous surveys: in 2024, the Free Press-Probe poll found the same levels of despondency about the state of Winnipeg — rising crime, worsening infrastructure, less public safety — with nearly six in 10 respondents saying they were somewhat or very pessimistic about the future of the city.

However, a few months after that survey, a separate Probe poll done for the city suggested residents understand the city is fighting a losing fiscal battle and needs more support from federal and provincial governments to make ends meet.

Although that suggests a modicum of sympathy from voters, it hasn’t translated into support for the mayor and council. Heading into the Oct. 28 election, Gillingham and others seeking re-election will have to contend with voters who are so discouraged they are unwilling to acknowledge small signs of progress.

For example, in 2025, all police-reported crime went down by nine per cent: there was a seven per cent dip in robberies, a 24.6 per cent drop in firearm offences, a 16 per cent drop in knife-related crimes and, most significantly, homicides were down by nearly half.

And yet, the most-recent Free Press-Probe Poll cites crime, violence and vandalism as the top concern of respondents.

Will voter pessimism scuttle the re-election hopes of Gillingham or other councillors who are running again? It’s always tough to predict the outcome of municipal elections for one reason: low voter turnout.

Will voter pessimism scuttle the re-election hopes of Gillingham or other councillors who are running again? It’s always tough to predict the outcome of municipal elections for one reason: low voter turnout.

In 2022, when Gillingham was first elected, only 37 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot. That was a particularly low turnout, but then again, the election took place when COVID-19 was still a major threat. Still, it was the lowest turnout in more than 30 years.

Given the mood of voters this time, it’s quite likely turnout will continue to be below historic levels.

Although that may not lead to any upsets, it will still result in a mayor and council who will have to go forth with the knowledge that Winnipeggers don’t have much faith in their ability to make things better.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca