Khan’s abrupt departure presents desperate Tories with a valuable opportunity

If the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives are serious about getting out of the political wilderness, they should start by electing a progressive conservative leader.

Not a louder conservative and not a more combative conservative — a genuinely progressive conservative.

Obby Khan’s abrupt departure as party leader last week has given the PCs something they desperately need: an opportunity to reset.

The party has become increasingly divided between its far-right conservatives and those who still believe the “progressive” in the party’s name actually means something.

The next leader needs to be strong enough to bring those factions together, but also strong enough to move the party back toward its progressive conservative roots.

Preferably, the next leader should live in Winnipeg.

The party needs to rebuild its support in Manitoba’s largest city, and that’s much easier to do with a leader who understands the political realities of Winnipeg first-hand.

The leader should also have political experience.

Former Tory MLA and cabinet minister Rochelle Squires would be worth considering. So would Winnipeg city councillor Janice Lukes (who is not seeking re-election), assuming either is interested in the job.

They represent the kind of candidates the party should be looking for: someone with political experience, a Winnipeg connection and an ability to appeal to voters who don’t necessarily consider themselves traditional Conservatives.

Because right now, the party is getting pummeled in the polls.

The latest Abacus Data polling, taken before Khan’s departure, shows just how much ground they have lost. The NDP is sitting at 60 per cent support across Manitoba, well above the 45 per cent popular vote it received in the 2023 election.

And this isn’t simply a Winnipeg problem for the PCs. The NDP has been making major gains outside the city, too.

That should be a warning that the Tories aren’t simply suffering from a temporary leadership problem. Their broader political coalition has been badly weakened.

The party needs to rebuild it.

That means understanding what progressive conservatism can look like in modern Manitoba. It doesn’t mean abandoning conservative principles. Far from it.

Fiscal responsibility still matters, taxation levels matter and so does fostering economic growth through the private sector.

But progressive conservatism also recognizes that government has important responsibilities. Manitobans expect strong public-sector services in areas such as health care, education and social services. They expect government to tackle social problems such as addictions and mental-health issues.

There is nothing inherently un-conservative about that.

The party used to understand that most voters aren’t looking for ideological purity. They’re looking for competent government.

That’s particularly important in Winnipeg.

No party in Manitoba can form government without winning seats in the city, and they can’t do that by treating Winnipeg voters as an afterthought.

They need to talk about the issues that actually dominate people’s lives: public safety, health care, taxes, education, infrastructure, jobs and the cost of living.

They need a leader who can walk into a Winnipeg neighbourhood and talk to voters who might have voted NDP in the last election but aren’t necessarily committed to the NDP forever. Those voters exist.

So do voters who once supported the PCs but have become uncomfortable with the party’s drift toward the political right. The PCs need to give those people a reason to return.

That won’t happen if the party continues to allow its far-right wing to define what conservatism means.

There is nothing wrong with having conservatives of different stripes inside a political party. In fact, broad political parties should contain people with different views.

The problem comes when the most ideological voices become the most influential voices.

The next leader needs to prevent that from happening. That doesn’t mean purging the far right, it means putting it in perspective.

The far right is part of the Conservative coalition. It shouldn’t be the Conservative coalition.

A strong leader should be able to say that without apology.

The timing also gives the PCs a strategic advantage. The next provincial election must be held on or before Oct. 5, 2027.

Realistically, the PCs have little chance of defeating Wab Kinew’s NDP in that election.

But that’s not necessarily bad news for the Tories.

It means the next leader doesn’t have to spend the next year pretending that an immediate return to government is realistic. Instead, the leader can start rebuilding.

The 2027 election can be treated as the first stage of a longer project: recruit better candidates, rebuild the party organization and reconnect with Winnipeg.

It means developing policies that appeal to moderate and progressive voters without alienating the party’s conservative base.

And, most importantly, it means establishing a political identity that Manitobans can understand.

It won’t be glamorous and there won’t be many instant victories.

The party will have to accept that rebuilding takes time — like a sports team in rebuild mode.

It needs a leader who understands that politics is about building coalitions, not simply energizing the people who already agree with you.

The Tories need someone who understands that being conservative doesn’t require being loud and angry and that being progressive doesn’t mean abandoning fiscal discipline.

If they can find such a leader, there’s no reason why they can’t be competitive in five years.

tom.brodbeck@winnipegfreepress.com