Bowman, Pallister rift could hurt Tories – and taxpayers

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 29/11/2017 (2880 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s hard to escape the fact that the province’s two most powerful Brians — Winnipeg Mayor Brian Bowman and Premier Brian Pallister — don’t much like each other right now.

Evidence of friction between the two Brians is not hard to find.

Although he took a very cautious approach to civic-provincial relations after Pallister was elected in 2016, Bowman has become increasingly critical of the province for its decisions to freeze funding on important files such as infrastructure and transit.

At last week’s release of the 2018 civic budget, Bowman went on the offensive, telling city residents they stood to suffer years of crippling property tax increases, largely as a result of provincial decisions to freeze or cut back funding to the city.

The province certainly took notice of Bowman’s line of attack, and mounted a counterattack the same day.

The response from Broadway has largely come from Municipal Affairs Minister Jeff Wharton, who stocked his Twitter feed with non-stop smack talk about the mayor, while providing his own data contesting the allegation that funding has been cut.

Winnipeg, Wharton has argued, is receiving more money now than in any previous year, and receives among the highest levels of per capita financial support in Canada.

Who walks on the side of angels on this one?

It is true that funding to Winnipeg is, in some respects, higher now than ever before. And when you add up all the dollars that flow from Broadway to Main Street, it’s significant: nearly a quarter of a billion dollars will ultimately make its way to the city next year. And the province has put fewer strings on that funding.

However, it’s also true that the province has frozen most of the largest streams of funding at 2016 levels, a policy that leaves the city vulnerable to inflation and population-driven increases in demand for certain services.

In fact, Bowman’s allegations are nearly identical to the complaints Pallister has made about federal health funding. When Ottawa unilaterally decided to halve the annual increase in health-care transfers, Pallister and the other premiers labelled it “a cut.”

Regardless of which calculations you choose to accept, the inescapable end result is that the province and its largest urban centre are in conflict, which will prevent them from planning constructively for the future. And that is bad news for taxpayers who have the misfortune of contributing to both levels of government.

It doesn’t help matters that both Brians will likely seek re-election in the next two years; Bowman in 2018 and then Pallister in 2020.

The Pallister Tories are extremely vulnerable in Winnipeg right now.

Following controversial changes to the hospital network in Winnipeg — which resulted in the closure of three emergency departments — the Tories have been bleeding support to other parties. A Probe Research-Free Press poll just last month showed the Tories running third to the surprisingly resilient NDP and the surging Liberals.

Meanwhile, there are few visible signs that Bowman has lost much of the support that carried him to victory in 2014. In the same Probe omnibus poll that produced the worrisome numbers for the Tories, Bowman received the support of 59 per cent of respondents.

That’s down significantly from the 77 per cent support Bowman received two years earlier, but still pretty robust going into the last year before an election. The poll also showed that Bowman is not dependent on Tory support for his re-election bid.

Somewhat surprisingly given his long association with the Tories, Bowman got more support from self-declared Liberals and New Democrats than from Progressive Conservatives.

The poll results need to be taken with a grain of salt; respondents were only asked if they approved of Bowman’s performance, and were given no other viable options to support. As such, the survey does not provide an accurate forecast of what might happen in the 2018 civic election.

However, if Bowman were to run — he hasn’t confirmed that he will stand for re-election — and win, it sets up a particularly sticky situation for provincial Tories.

Tory insiders believe Bowman is trying to ride a wave of anti-Pallister sentiment to re-election.

“He’s trying to wipe his feet on us on his way to another win,” one strategist said. “It’s a craven bit of self-interest on the mayor’s part.”

That’s possible; however, it’s important to note that on big policy initiatives like the hospital reorganization, Bowman has been decidedly understated. If the mayor had come out to protest the closure of some emergency rooms, it could have been devastating for Tory fortunes in the city. He hasn’t done that, and is showing no signs that he is interested in extending his criticism of the current provincial government to issues beyond city funding.

Even if he sticks to that one issue, a re-elected Bowman laying future property tax increases at the steps of the Manitoba legislature represents a significant threat to the Tories going into 2020.

Taxpaying residents of Winnipeg should keep their fingers crossed that the two Brians find a way to kiss and make up before either has to go to the polls. The longer the hostilities continue, the more likely that taxpayers will turn out to be the ultimate losers.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca