Economic optimism rising: poll

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This article was published 27/12/2017 (2983 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Gazing into Manitoba’s economic crystal ball, senior business leaders are increasingly bullish about the future of the provincial economy.

And they are not seeing any sexual harassment scandals on the horizon, like the ones toppling titans of business, media and entertainment south of the border.

The 15th annual Manitoba Business Leaders Index found that close to three-quarters of business leaders in the province are optimistic about the Manitoba economy. More businesses are expecting to hire new workers and more are expecting to do better financially, the Probe Research survey found.

“If you look at the trend line that goes way back, where we are today compared to past results shows we’re almost at an all-time high for these metrics,” Probe president Scott MacKay said.

Optimism about the economic future of Manitoba is the highest it’s been in five years, the survey found, with just 10 per cent of the business leaders who responded expecting their company will perform worse a year from now.

The survey found that 42 per cent expect to do better — a 10 per cent increase over 2016 when 16 per cent of firms expected their financial performance would be worse. The survey found 26 per cent expected to hire more while seven per cent expected to have fewer staff. Larger employers and companies with international interests were more likely to expect that they’ll expand their work force, the survey said. Most businesses — 62 per cent — expected their staffing levels would stay the same.

One growing worry that Manitoba businesses reported was not being able to find enough skilled workers. Fifty-five per cent said they’ve had trouble in the past year finding qualified new employees with relevant skills. In 2015, just 37 per cent of businesses reported a skill shortage.

“Having trouble finding skilled workers corresponds with a robust economy,” MacKay said. “That’s the kind of problem you want to have. It shows that we’ve got good levels of employment. If you’re an HR person, it’s not that fun, but it does say something about the economy.”

When it comes to perceptions of whether or not government policies and decisions create a climate that’s good for business, 33 per cent say the provincial government is doing at the very least, a good job. Premier Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservative government is better for Manitoba businesses, say those running them. In 2014 when the NDP was in power, just 13 per cent of business leaders had something positive to say about the business climate in the province.

The federal government, meanwhile, scored poorly in the eyes of Manitoba business leaders. In 2014, with a Conservative government in charge in Ottawa, 34 per cent thought the federal government was creating a good business climate. In 2017, with the Liberals in power, that dropped to 20 per cent. This year saw Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s small-business tax reform proposals rolled out then rolled back after a backlash from businesses. “Morneau’s tax reform plans did not go over well with the business community,” MacKay said.

Neither did threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to scrap the North America Free Trade Agreement.

“There’s a lot of pessimism,” MacKay said. The probe survey found that while Manitoba business leaders don’t think Trump will follow through with his campaign promise to “terminate” NAFTA, most (41 per cent) believe it will be changed significantly. Just 27 per cent think it will undergo “minor tweaks” and 17 per cent think NAFTA won’t survive at all. Sixteen per cent are unsure.

If NAFTA doesn’t survive renegotiation, nearly half (46 per cent) of companies said they would be OK and would find new opportunities. More than one-fifth (22 per cent) of business leaders said the Manitoba economy would be really hurt if the trade agreement was scrapped, but only six per cent said their business would be really hurt. Another fifth was unsure what impact the death of NAFTA would have on their business.

Concerns about what effect changes to NAFTA would have on their business differ depending on the size of the business and its customers. Someone running a dry cleaning operation might say “I don’t think it will impact me,” while a bus parts manufacturer would be expected to express some concern, he said. More than two thirds of Manitoba business leaders said they have no plans in place if NAFTA is scrapped.

Another hot-button topic ripped from the headlines that Probe asked Manitoba business leaders about is sexual harassment. The explosion of sexual harassment allegations this year, starting with Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein, prompted questions like, “To what extent has your company been dealing with sexual harassment issues over the past, say, five years or so?”

Most Manitoba business leaders (74 per cent) said they’ve had no such issues come up. Another 23 per cent said “there has been the odd issue,” but not one company reported it being a “major workplace issue.”

Smaller companies in Manitoba are much less likely to have formal sexual harassment policies in place, MacKay said. Just 22 per cent of businesses with fewer than 10 employees had such a policy compared to the majority of medium and large companies. The survey found that very few employers at small businesses were aware of sexual harassment issues at their workplace. Businesses with the largest number of employees had the most experience dealing with sexual harassment in the workplace. Nearly half (46 per cent) said they’ve dealt with the issue at least occasionally in the last few years.

MacKay said the response patterns were the same for male and female employers — who made up nearly one-quarter of the respondents. “Most… said it’s not a huge problem.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca