February could be snowiest in more than 30 years

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This article was published 12/02/2019 (2584 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If it seems like we’ve had an awful lot of snow lately, you’re right.

So far, this February has been one of the snowiest in many years, says an expert in Winnipeg who monitors snowfall for Environment Canada.

“It’s been a snowy stretch,” said retired meteorologist and weather blogger Rob Paola, who keeps track of snowfall amounts where he lives in Charleswood.

“We’ve already had 25 centimetres of snow in February,” said Paola. That’s a lot for February, the driest month of the year in Winnipeg and the least snowy winter month with an average of 12.5 centimetres of snow, he said. In 2018, only 6.6 centimetres fell during the whole month. In February 2007, 26 centimetres of snow was recorded in Winnipeg.

With more snow on the way Wednesday, February 2019 will likely be the snowiest Winnipeg since 1987 when it received 42.2 centimetres, Paola said.

A big dump of snow this month is no predictor of spring flooding, he cautioned.

“There’s no direct correlation between this being a snowy February and this being a bad year for flooding,” Paola said. “What’s more important are factors such as how much snow and snowpack we have. Right now, we’re a little bit above average for winter snowfall but not extraordinarily high. At this point our snowpack is within normal ranges but if we get a lot in March or April, that could be a concern for spring flooding.”

The total snowfall Paola measured this winter is 93 centimetres, about 15 centimetres above average at this point in the season, he said.

“Two winters ago we were up at 121 centimetres. Last winter we had less,” the retired meteorologist said.

Snow accumulation so far has been tracking near normal to below normal in most parts of Manitoba watersheds, the provincial government says.

“The Hydrologic Forecast Centre, working in collaboration with other forecast agencies, including the U.S., continues to monitor conditions,” a government spokesman said in an email.

Manitoba’s first official flood outlook is being prepared for release later in February, he said.

South of the border, the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in late January that the risk for significant snow melt flooding this spring on the Red River and Devils Lake Basin is low.

That’s because of dry conditions for the last two years and the prediction that the second half of winter will be mild, the Jan. 24 update said. Northeast North Dakota has drier-than-usual soils, which means a lower chance of runoff, the report said.

Paola isn’t sure what spring will bring to southern Manitoba.

“Sometimes we get our biggest snowstorms in March or April,” he said. Then again, “we’ve had snowy Februarys followed by very little snow in March and April,” said Paolo.

“There’s still a lot of winter left.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca