Warm, sunny weather brings optimism, downgraded river peaks to flood picture

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This article was published 05/05/2022 (1219 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

More rain headed for flood-hit Manitoba this weekend is not expected to impact water levels, as Interlake communities continue their fight and the Red River nears its peak.

As levels stabilize in most areas amid warm and sunny weather, the province expects the Fisher River to retreat within its banks in Peguis First Nation around Monday.

The projected peaks for most communities on the Red have been downgraded, although a disruptive spring flood comparable to major events in 2009 and 2011 is still expected.

“Things are relatively better,” Fisaha Unduche, Manitoba’s head of hydrologic forecasting, told a Thursday news conference on the Assiniboine River in downtown Winnipeg. “The good news in our short-term forecast is we don’t see any major (rainfall) system developing.”

The province is expecting five to 10 millimetres of rain in flood zones starting Saturday, as Peguis experiences a one-in-100-year flood, said Unduche.

Levels are at their highest since 1962 after the Fisher River spilled its banks last weekend, he said.

More than 1,400 Peguis residents have been forced to leave their homes. Approximately 700 properties have been affected.

The Fisher River and the Icelandic — which has caused significant flooding in Arborg and the surrounding Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton — have peaked in most places, and will gradually decline, said Unduche.

Assembly of First Nations on Thursday urged the federal and provincial governments to ensure the community has everything it needs to fight floodwater and help residents.

Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Doyle Piwniuk said the province is providing support as requested — sending 25 water pumps, for example — as Ottawa takes the lead with Peguis.

Piwniuk said the province is currently most concerned about the Interlake.

Peguis leadership inquired about having a medevac helicopter stationed in the community, a provincial spokeswoman said.

Shared Health was unable to put one on standby in Peguis because the aircraft is used regularly across the province for emergencies, the spokeswoman said, adding a helicopter will be available to respond in the community should the need arise.

The Free Press contacted Indigenous Services Canada, but did not receive a comment.

South of Winnipeg, the Red continues to rise ahead of its crest in Emerson as early as Saturday and elsewhere by May 14.

Voluntary evacuation notices have been distributed to hundreds of people whose homes have been cut off or are at risk of that happening as roads become submerged.

The province lowered its projected peaks by up to three feet for communities north of Emerson and Letellier, where the forecast was largely unchanged.

“As you move through the north to the floodway inlet and St. Adolphe, it is improving,” said Unduche.

Community ring dikes and safeguards at most individual properties in the Red River Valley are built to withstand this level of flood.

Based on the latest forecast and its own modelling, the City of Winnipeg has told owners of at-risk properties they do not have to build sandbag dikes at this time.

“We are continuing to monitor the situation and will advise them if and when they need to build,” said spokeswoman Lisa Marquardson.

Municipalities have welcomed the downgraded projections, but remain cautious.

“We need to plan for the worst and hope for the best,” said Chris Ewen, mayor of the RM of Ritchot, just south of Winnipeg. “We’re prepared for anything, and we know exactly what could happen because we’ve seen worst-case scenarios.”

Ritchot issued an urgent call for volunteers to help build sandbag dikes at a handful of properties Thursday, as the number of voluntary evacuation notices surpassed 180.

“We are in desperate need of volunteers, anyone from any community,” said Ewen.

No homes have been lost, he said, but some barns, sheds and garages have flooded.

“It’s all along the Red River, and it goes past St. Adolphe. The homes are being evacuated constantly there,” he said.

To the south of Ritchot, about 30 to 40 people in the RM of Morris have left their homes.

“We’re concerned about water levels increasing to the level where residents will lose road access,” said Reeve Ralph Groening.

Dave Carlson, reeve of the RM of Emerson-Franklin, said the flood’s main impact will be rural residents getting cut off as water flows over gravel roads.

The municipality’s fire department has its water-rescue unit on standby in case residents need help.

Carlson is hoping the area isn’t hit by strong wind gusts as water levels peak.

“It could wash over some roads. We do have quite the ocean in the northwest portion of the municipality, so we’re hoping not to get too much wave action,” he said. “It just causes more damage to roads and pushes debris.”

Twenty-five municipalities and some First Nations communities, including Peguis and Fisher River Cree Nation, have declared local states of emergency.

Johanu Botha, head of Manitoba’s Emergency Management Organization, said he is not recommending a provincial state of emergency, as officials can access funds to lead the flood response.

“At this time, we have the systems and processes and programs in place to do what we need to with our current set of legal powers,” said Botha.

He said about 200 people from municipalities have left their homes so far, and he hopes the total stays below 500 if water levels will continue to stabilize or recede.

In the Red River Valley, peak flows will likely continue for about five to seven days before a gradual decline begins around May 15, Unduche said.

He expects the Red to bloat to a width of about 13 kilometres between St. Jean Baptiste and Morris.

“It will take time for the water to go back within its banks,” he said.

Some low-lying areas could still experience overland flooding toward the end of May.

Environment Canada meteorologist Terri Lang said this weekend’s low-pressure system will dump up to 20 millimetres of rain near the Manitoba-Saskatchewan boundary, and less than 15 millimetres in the eastern half of the province.

“I don’t think any rain at this time is welcome, but it could be worse,” she said.

A further 20 to 30 millimetres is possible in parts of southern Manitoba early next week, followed by a break, Lang said.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca