Game of (fat) chance

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 01/08/2010 (5573 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

How big of a factor is luck in poker? What makes one person luckier than another? If poker were a game of luck, would it be possible for so many people around the world to make a living at it? Many people still feel poker is a game of chance rather than skill and I doubt I’ll be able to change their opinions in one column, but I will give it a shot.

Poker is a game of odds, and since there is this factor, anyone who plays will lose a hand, even when they are a massive favourite, from time to time. Does this mean it is a game of chance? Of course not. All this means is that we lost a pot when we were way ahead of our opponent.

Since we know the odds, if we keep getting our money in when we should, we will turn a huge profit in the long run.

I constantly hear people talking about how unlucky they are. Is it possible for one person to be luckier than another? Well, if two players with the same playing style and ability were to play an infinite number of hands we would be able to see that the amount of times they got lucky and unlucky would be very close, if not equal. It is possible for one person to be luckier than another in a small sample size, but over the long run luck will begin to even itself out.

The fact is, whenever I hear someone talk about how unlucky they are, I am skeptical. In poker, if we are playing against opponents who are better than us, no matter how lucky we get we will become big losers over time. This is why I feel we can help make our own luck.

Players all over the world are making a great living playing this wonderful game. Are they the luckiest players out there? No, they are the best players out there. If you aren’t able to evolve with the game, all the luck in the world will not help you play for a living. But if you study the game and learn how to exploit your opponents you might just accomplish this.

A few nights ago, I was online playing 25-50 no-limit hold-’em, six max, and a player who I know raises his button every time it is folded to him raised me when I was in the big blind. Since I know he is raising very light, I three-bet him to $500 with 6-4 of spades. To my surprise, he called. The flop was A-5-3 — a good one for me considering I didn’t have much of a hand. I bet $600 and he called. The turn was a 7, giving me the nuts. I checked, hoping to get him to bet and sure enough he bet $1,200. I check raised him all in, he called me pretty quick and was drawing dead with AK.

Was I lucky? Sure, I got lucky to win a pot of almost $10,000 with 6-4. But was my opponent unlucky? Well, if we look back, we can see he misplayed his hand. I knew he was raising light every time it was folded to him on the button, but he didn’t realize I was three-betting him light because of this. Had he bet me pre-flop, I would have folded my hand very quickly.

His lack of aggression worked out great for me, as I would have been forced to lose my three bet of $500. Instead, I won a huge pot in a spot where I should not have even been allowed to see a flop!

There is absolutely nothing we can do about the turn of the cards; there is, however, something we can do about the way we play the cards we’re dealt.