Manitobans in dark on vaccines

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This article was published 25/01/2021 (1859 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba not only lags behind other Canadian provinces when it comes to quickly vaccinating its highest-priority citizens, but also in providing details to the rest of its population on when — or if — they can expect to be immunized against COVID-19 in 2021.

Other provincial governments — in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec — have released far more detailed information than Manitoba’s on the order in which different groups will be vaccinated and how long it is expected to take.

While the province previously promised to release a timetable for when different Manitobans could expect to become eligible for vaccination as early as last week, that changed when news broke that Pfizer-BioNTech would reduce shipments of its product to Canada.

Over the next month, Manitoba will receive 28,000 fewer doses than expected, which accounts for the majority of its forecasted delivery.

It was this development that Dr. Joss Reimer — medical lead on the province’s vaccination task force — pointed to last week when explaining why there would be a delay in releasing the vaccine rollout plan to the public.

“With the Pfizer disruption, we want to take a second, and take another look at that again, so that we can ensure we provide accurate information to Manitobans and can follow through on any commitments that we make,” Reimer said.

A provincial spokeswoman told the Free Press, via a written statement on Sunday, that further updates on the rollout will be provided this week.

But multiple public health experts who spoke to the Free Press said that disruptions in the vaccine supply chain — which are not only expected but have been long predicted — should not impact the timeline for releasing information about the rollout to the public.

James Blanchard, an epidemiologist and public health specialist at the University of Manitoba, said he hopes this foot-dragging isn’t a sign the province has yet to determine how it plans to proceed with its vaccine rollout.

“Once we knew the characteristics of the vaccine, in terms of the number and timing of doses — and that’s been known for some time — at that point you can develop a basic sequencing for the rollout. I’m assuming that would have been done quite some time ago,” Blanchard said.

“The question becomes: when or why do you communicate it to the public? I would suggest you communicate that to the public as soon as you know what your plan is.”

That Manitoba is lagging behind other provinces when it comes to providing such information is consistent with patterns seen throughout the novel coronavirus pandemic. Last year, the provincial government released far less detailed virus modelling than seen in other jurisdictions.

Blanchard said releasing such information and forecasting gives people insight into what the government is envisioning as the pandemic continues to unfold, and helps them know what to expect for themselves and their families.

“It’s important for that information to be out because people know there are going to be constraints until vaccination is having an effect on transmission and protecting the vulnerable. Having a sense of what the timeline looks like is helpful to buttress strategies for reducing transmission in the meantime,” Blanchard said.

“I think it’s also important to indicate that once we reach certain thresholds with vaccine coverage that it may affect certain aspects of people’s lives and the strains on the health-care system.”

Manitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont said there should be a public list of which populations get vaccines, in what priority, with flexible timelines based on the supply chain and distribution.

“We called for that more than a month ago… Manitoba’s vaccine rollout has been one of the worst in Canada. Our mortality rate is the second-worst as well, and unless they get their act together, that will be the legacy of this government,” Lamont said.

Manitoba Nurses Union president Darlene Jackson said transparency from the provincial government and informed decision making among citizens will lead to the best results for Manitobans.

“Listening to the people on the frontlines and actioning the next steps accordingly will not only help to keep our nurses here in Manitoba but will put the health of Manitobans first,” Jackson said.

“Our neighbouring provinces seem to be forthcoming with their plans and we would invite this government to do the same.”

Cynthia Carr, a Winnipeg-based epidemiologist and the founder of EPI Research, said there have been some smart decisions with the vaccine rollout in Manitoba, including prioritization for first doses.

“I really liked how Manitoba looked at the two most important categories and put them together, in terms of the strategy for how to use the small amount of the vaccine we started with. That is looking at what we call exposure-vulnerable individuals and health-vulnerable individuals,” Carr said.

By “exposure-vulnerable” Carr meant people who are at a high risk of contracting the virus due to their job or where they live, and by “health-vulnerable” she meant individuals who are at high risk of complications should they become infected.

“They put those together and said, ‘If you work in these frontline health care situations and you’re within these age groups then you are a priority.’ I thought that was really smart in terms of strategy,” Carr said.

Carr added that the province was smart to ignore calls to “get needles in arms” as soon as possible, instead taking a more measured approach that saw them hold back some doses.

“That approach would only be productive if you absolutely have 100 per cent certainty in your supply chain… And the time to trust the supply chain is not at the start of a very new and global situation,” Carr said.

“You’re only inoculated if you get the right dose for your age group and it’s on time. My understanding is Manitoba reserved the second dose and didn’t get caught up in (the calls to rush) and that’s extremely intelligent.”

Carr also said Manitobans should be prepared for additional bumps in the road as the vaccine rollout continues — although she hopes that won’t include major disruptions.

“This is a global issue. There are billions of people involved… It’s now up to the manufacturing process to be able to keep up. It’s not just about the vaccine. It’s about vials, the needles, the boxes, the refrigeration,” Carr said.

“It’s really important to remember that this is an enormous endeavour and it would be surprising if there were not further challenges.”

But hopefully those challenges are few and far between, because with the risk of a COVID-19 variant turning up in Manitoba increasing all the time, speed is of the essence.

“The consequences of a variant coming in that’s much more transmissible, the health impact — before the vaccine is able to dampen down the epidemic sufficiently — could be substantial,” Blanchard said.

“It’s just another reason why there should be such a substantial impetus into putting all our resources into the vaccine rollout.”

ryan.thorpe@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @rk_thorpe