Number of asylum seekers crossing into Manitoba on the decline

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This article was published 19/09/2017 (2951 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — Canada is on-track to hit its biggest boom in asylum-seekers since 2001, but Ottawa says it’s part of a normal fluctuation in people making refugee claims.

Data released Tuesday show a slight August drop in the number of asylum seekers making illicit crossings from the United States into Manitoba, though the numbers almost doubled in Quebec.

But Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen is expecting many more people to seek asylum in Canada — he’s expecting some 40,000 claims in 2017, the Free Press has learned.

That would be the highest number since 2001, when the number of claims surpassed 44,000. It’s more than an estimate this summer by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, which said Canada should expect 36,610 asylum claims by year’s end.

Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel attended a Monday meeting with New York City immigrant groups, where Hussen tackled myths about Canada’s asylum process.

Rempel said one representative asked Hussen how many asylum claims Hussen anticipates, and he answered 40,000. Hussen’s office has confirmed that number, with a spokesman saying it was based on the trends in both regular claims, like arriving at an airport and asking for asylum, and irregular ones, which involve violating border rules.

“Every forecast within the government says it’s going to increase,” Rempel said. “The government still isn’t taking long-term, systemic fixes, to make sure their process stays orderly.”

But Ottawa said Tuesday’s data suggest that claims are falling.

“The numbers fluctuate,” Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale told reporters. “Some months they go up; some months they go down. Most recently they’ve been going down.”

80 people intercepted in Manitoba

The data show the RCMP intercepted 80 people in August in Manitoba, all of whom likely crossed in fields near Emerson. That means 813 people have crossed into the province in the first eight months of 2017.

Meanwhile, the data suggest an almost doubling of asylum seekers crossing into Quebec compared with the previous month, which had seen a near-fourfold jump in July. The RCMP intercepted 5,530 people in that province last month.

Goodale said all Canadian and international laws are being enforced thanks to border guards and RCMP officers.

But Rempel said it’s “misleading” to say Tuesday’s numbers are a normal fluctuation, because they don’t match the number anticipated at the start of the year. She said the 40,000 estimate means Ottawa will reassess its budgets and Canadians will start doubting an immigration system they strongly trust.

“People look at this and say it’s not fair,” Rempel said. She cited backlogs on everything from groups wanting to privately sponsor refugees, to hearings for those who arrive in Canada to claim asylum. The hearing delays mean thousands wait for years and draw on benefits, including those from countries with a low asylum-claim success rate.

“This is unplanned migration,” Rempel said, fearing a lack of policy will mean Canadian politics "devolving into either side of the ditch, left or right.”

Debate worrying: Rempel

This summer, the federal Liberals have sent MPs to Florida, California and New York to quell rumours among certain groups such as Haitians and Latinos that Canada offers easy asylum claims. The moves come as the U.S. winds down a temporary-stay program for as many as 30,000 people while its increasing deportation raids.

Last month, Minnesota groups said Manitoba could face hundreds more African asylum seekers, but that hasn’t happened yet. The government has hinted it will expand its outreach to different communities.

In recent years, people have crossed outside of border stations at places such as Emerson to claim asylum through a legal loophole.

The number of these claimants rose during former U.S. president Barack Obama’s increased deportations, and further intensified under current President Donald Trump to 13,211 in the first eight months of this year.

Since 2004, the Safe Third Country Agreement has forbidden most people from making an asylum claim at the Canada-United States land border, but a 1951 UN agreement prohibits countries, including Canada, from prosecuting or deporting people who cross illegally in order to make an asylum claim.

Critics say that provides an incentive for people to cross along remote, unpatrolled parts of the border before reporting themselves to Canadian police. In Manitoba, many originally come from Somalia and Ghana.

At least one woman died of hypothermia in May while attempting the crossing near Minnesota.

Rempel said the Tories want to expand the 2004 agreement to include “flashpoints” like Emerson, to send claimants back to the U.S.

She knows that violates the 1951 UN rules, but says Canada needs to overhaul its entire refugee system to deal with trends like genocides, climate refugees and transnational asylum paths that have people walking into Canada at a rate never seen before.

“Canada is just seeing the effects of this now and we’re not in a position to be nimble enough to change our processes to reflect that,” she said from New York, where the UN Secretary General said the global refugee system needs reform.

“I worry about this debate.”

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca