Plenty of risk, big reward for Liberal leader

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This article was published 28/03/2018 (2913 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Although Dougald Lamont has been consistently coy about his future, it appears likely the leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party soon will make an announcement — as early as today — that he will seek his party’s nomination for a byelection in St. Boniface later this year.

When you look at the way the stars have aligned, it is getting hard to imagine him not doing so.

Lamont doesn’t live in the Winnipeg riding, but he does speak French and has run there once before — losing in 2003 to recently retired former NDP leader Greg Selinger. The fact he needs a seat in the Manitoba legislature, and already has canvassed the streets of the riding, makes his entry into this byelection seem like a no-brainer.

A modicum of familiarity with the riding is not the only advantage Lamont has: there is also the comfort of knowing he would be in a contest where neither the Tories nor the NDP has a clear path to victory.

The governing Progressive Conservatives are facing controversy and infighting on several fronts.

Premier Brian Pallister has spent most of the last week locked in a war of words with former Manitoba Hydro chairman Sanford Riley and Manitoba Métis Federation president David Chartrand over a decision to veto a $67.5-million compensation settlement. This comes in the wake of the tabling of a provincial budget that has been assailed as underwhelming and deceptive, and ongoing concern about health-care reform in Winnipeg.

There also is a growing skepticism within the PC party about the value of pouring money into a St. Boniface byelection. The Tories spent lavishly in last year’s Point Douglas byelection, and got nothing for their time and money other than a reminder they do not fare well in inner-city ridings.

The NDP, meanwhile, has its own troubles.

Leader Wab Kinew continues to wage daily war to balance his political aspirations against domestic-assault allegations from 2003 that show no signs of going away any time soon. If that were not enough, Selinger was more or less forced to resign his seat earlier this month, after it was learned his administration had failed to respond to allegations of sexual misconduct against former cabinet minister Stan Struthers.

As he did when five dissident cabinet ministers tried to force him to resign before the 2016 election, Selinger turned aside the calls for him to step down until, inevitably, it became clear he had to go. However, by that time, both the failure to address the Struthers’ allegations and Selinger’s initial refusal to accept responsibility for what reportedly happened on his watch damaged the NDP’s chances to retain St. Boniface.

Into this scenario comes Lamont, who has worked hard during the past six months to make “slow and steady” a political virtue. Since taking over the Manitoba Liberal party, he has travelled the province, delivered speeches to special-interest groups and tried to wade into the daily news cycle with releases and statements.

It hasn’t been a game-changing performance, but if Lamont has anything going for him, it is that neither he nor his party has made any big mistakes. That alone makes the Liberals stand out against the Tories and NDP, which appear unable to tie their shoelaces in the morning without generating a negative headline.

If there is any reason for concern for Manitoba Grits, it is that the party has failed profoundly in the recent past to take advantage of opportunities. That was certainly the case in the 2016 election, when former leader Rana Bokhari stumbled and fumbled her way through a campaign that started with a clear shot to make major gains.

Can Lamont avoid a Bokhari-like fate? He has not yet been tested in any type of campaign, so it’s clearly too early to say with any certainty he will perform better than his predecessor. And there are signs Lamont and the party still are not quite ready to seize the moment.

For example, the recent Manitoba Liberals annual general meeting, held just two weeks ago, was a troubled event.

MLAs Cindy Lamoureux (Burrows) and Judy Klassen (Keewatinook) were not in attendance; the former because of an academic commitment, the latter because she was in the midst of a late-winter tour of her northern Manitoba riding that is somewhat dependent on the conditions of ice roads. Although both excuses seem plausible, they do nothing to erase the image of a leader that cannot command appearances from two-thirds of his elected caucus.

Attendance at the event was pretty sparse. The Free Press reported only 75 people showed up to hear Lamont’s keynote address on the Saturday night of the AGM. There are times when leaders and parties need to pack a hotel ballroom to, if nothing else, create the impression of growing support.

This was one of those moments, and Lamont fell short of the critical mass of warm bodies.

In politics, as in other areas of life, potential is a double-edged sword. Live up to potential, and success is sweet. Fall short of that potential, however, and failure will be amplified significantly.

If Lamont decides to run in St. Boniface, delivers a competent campaign and wins, he will have rewritten the short-term political forecast for the province.

However, if he chooses not to run — or runs and loses — he will be back at Square 1, as the leader of a party not ready for prime time.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca