Progressive Conservative support strengthens

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This article was published 23/04/2018 (2866 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Progressive Conservatives continue to dominate Manitoba’s political landscape despite the Pallister government’s combative style and questions over whether the premier is paying all the taxes he may owe on his Costa Rican vacation property.

A new Winnipeg Free Press/Probe Research poll shows the PCs comfortably in front with the support of 44 per cent of decided voters, up four points from December and eight points higher than last September.

NDP support is stuck below 30 per cent provincewide (at 28 per cent vs. 26 per cent in December), while Liberal support has shrunk to 19 per cent from 25 per cent in the previous quarter. The Green party is a distant fourth with eight per cent support.

Twenty-three per cent of those surveyed were undecided.

Among decided voters in Winnipeg, the Tories and the NDP are tied for the lead with 33 per cent support, with the Liberals trailing at 25 per cent.

Probe Research president Scott MacKay said the latest PC numbers put them right back to where they were a year ago.

“They’re not being thrown off their game. They would easily win an election (held) tomorrow…” he said.

Said Winnipeg political scientist Christopher Adams: “I would say this is excellent news for the Progressive Conservatives and for (Premier Brian) Pallister.”

Going into the next election, Adams said, the PCs will have to hold their own in Winnipeg, which has more than half the province’s 57 seats, and it appears that they are still doing that.

Probe surveyed 2,000 Manitobans in its latest poll — twice the usual number — over a month-long period ending April 13. During that time, the Pallister government feuded with the former chairman of Manitoba Hydro as well as with the Manitoba Metis Federation. Towards the end of the polling period, the Free Press raised questions about whether the premier owed luxury taxes on his Costa Rican vacation home. None of these issues appeared to influence the survey results.

MacKay said, for example, that PC support held steady when a spat broke out between Pallister and outgoing Hydro board chairman Sandy Riley part way through the survey period. Riley and nearly his entire board would resign over what they said was their inability to arrange a meeting with the premier.

The Progressive Conservatives (36 per cent) are in a virtual tie with the NDP (35 per cent) when it comes to support among women. However, there is a huge gap between the two parties among men — with the PCs receiving 51 per cent support to the NDP’s 21 per cent. Men and women support the Liberals in equal numbers.

MacKay said when Gary Doer was premier, the NDP could count on the support of two-thirds of the province’s women. If the NDP remains tied with the PCs in attracting women voters, “it’s going to be hard to imagine how the NDP would win” the next election, he said.

The Progressive Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead in all age categories, polling at 43 per cent among 18-34-year-olds, and 44 per cent for both 35-54-year-olds and those age 55 and over.

Support for the PCs is highest outside the city of Winnipeg (59 per cent) and among those with high school education or less (54 per cent). Indigenous people favour the NDP (42 per cent).

While Manitoba’s Liberal party has seen a six-point decline in popularity since December, its current level of support is higher than it was on election night two years ago.

MacKay noted that the downturn in Liberal support coincides with declining federal Liberal fortunes. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals currently trail the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer in national polling.

“I have noticed that when the federal Liberals are down in the dumps, the provincial Liberals usually suffer,” he said.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca