Tories sag, Liberals leap, poll says

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This article was published 22/06/2020 (2089 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — The federal Liberals are riding high in Winnipeg, according to new polling that also shows the NDP overtaking the lacklustre Tories, who appear to be bleeding support to the Trudeau government.

“An increasing share of Manitobans feel the Trudeau government has done a good job of handling the COVID-19 pandemic over the last little while, and (the party is) being rewarded for that,” said Curtis Brown, a principal at Probe Research.

The Winnipeg Free Press commissioned the firm to poll 1,000 Manitobans at the start of the month. Results show the NDP has overtaken the Tories among Winnipeg voters.

The Liberals command 45 per cent support among Winnipeggers, up from the 36 per cent they held in last October’s federal election, which held steady in March before the novel coronavirus lockdown.

The Tories have tumbled in the city: from 34 per cent in the election to their current 19 per cent, putting them eight points behind the NDP, whose numbers have only slightly increased in Winnipeg.

Brown said he doubts the federal NDP has ever held more support than the Tories in Winnipeg since the federal Reform/Alliance and PC parties merged in 2003 to create the Conservative Party of Canada.

Among women in Winnipeg, the Conservatives have just 10 per cent support, compared with 22 per cent of men.

Christopher Adams, a University of Manitoba political scientist, said the Liberals’ local surge aligns with national polling.

“Winnipeg, in many ways, is a bellwether for what’s happening across the country,” said Adams, who worked for Probe a decade ago.

Outside Winnipeg, the Liberals have had a boost, to 23 per cent support, from 13 per cent last October. In that time, the Tories have dropped to 54 per cent (from 61 per cent), while the NDP lost three points, which is within the margin of error.

Adams and Brown both said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s daily news conferences give him lots of exposure. None of the Liberal party’s missteps has registered as major stumbles in the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, departing Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has been unable to deliver messaging against the Liberals in terms that resonate with voters, the two experts said.

The Tory party’s demands to crack down on benefit cheats and incentivize people to return to work was poorly received by many Canadians receiving emergency unemployment cheques. A recent parliamentary showdown over a bill the Liberals decided to tie to funding for people with disabilities led to voters viewing the Tories as “obstructionist,” Adams argued.

“There’s been a fairly weak opposition, and a centre-stage Liberal presence in the national media over the past three months,” he said.

Brown expects the Tories will see a boost in support when they pick a new leader in August, but for now: “They have a lame-duck leader, and the leadership race has not generated a lot of interest.”

The Liberals have majority support in the southern parts of Winnipeg, which for decades have followed national electoral trends.

Brown said if a vote were held today, the Liberals would likely win back one of the three seats they lost in October’s election; Adams said it could even be two or three seats.

“People forget that this is a minority Parliament, and an election could happen at any time,” Brown said.

In Manitoba, the Liberals hold four ridings, the NDP three and the Tories seven.

Adams said while Canadians are rallying around Trudeau and most premiers, their newfound popularity could crater when the country shifts to paying the tab for massive spending programs.

Meanwhile, 100 self-identified Indigenous people polled supported the NDP at 44 per cent, which is double the support of either the Liberals or Conservatives, who were effectively tied. The Probe polling firm cautioned against drawing conclusions from such a small sample size.

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca

Probe poll on federal parties June 2020