Warm weather expected to linger

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This article was published 21/10/2021 (1590 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Recent chilly weather was a quick break in what has been an especially warm fall — heat that is expected to linger in the near future.

Leaves still on trees, beers still being served on patios, and picnics still being spotted on parks are just a few indicators of what has been an unseasonably toasty few months, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Natalie Hasell.

“There have been a few days where temperatures have been more seasonal, but mostly all of September and everything in October up to now, the coolest it’s been is seasonal and then a lot of days have been well-above normal,” she said Wednesday.

While the average October temperature in Winnipeg from 1981 to 2010 was 5 C, the average so far this year has been 12 C, “remarkably” above normal, Hasell said.

The month has also been the scene of several daily heat records, with Brandon, Gimli, Steinbach, Melita, Pinawa and Pine Falls all hitting new high marks.

Some days have been more fall-like, however, including Wednesday, when 6 C with partly-cloudy skies in Winnipeg was closer to 9.7 C, the average high recorded by Environment Canada. (The highest temperature recorded in the capital for Oct. 20 was 23.9 C in 1958; the lowest was -12.8 C in 2002.)

Winds from the north are the current culprit, Hasell said.

“Right now, even though we have sunny skies, what we’re really seeing is cold air… being brought to us, moderating somewhat as it reaches us, but bringing us closer to seasonal conditions. And we’ll see that for the rest of the week.”

While the beginning of October had warm weather records being smashed, Hasell said, it wasn’t likely October would end that way.

“Our temperatures will be above normal still, for quite a while, but much closer to seasonal after the 29th,” she said.

There are a few reasons for the sunny days. Winnipeg had been under the influence of upper ridges (an area of high air pressure that typically brings warmer, drier weather) centred more to the south of the city, allowing warm air to build across the Prairies.

Climate change is also a factor, but one of many, Hasell said.

“Even when we have climate change and global warming, there’s still going to be variability,” she said. “So when we get to this winter, for instance, there’s still going to be some very cold days.

“Maybe not as many, maybe not for as long at a time, but I expect for the winter that we will still get some rather unpleasantly cold days or dangerously cold days.”

Regardless of the reason, Lorette Golf Course general manager Gareth Tanswell said he has no complaints: the site will be staying open until Oct. 28, on account of the mild weather, the latest it has done so in his time there.

“The course, at this moment in time, is probably in the best shape it’s been at this time in the year, and I’ve been here seven years… The weather’s certainly helped, we got the rain when we needed it,” he said.

“We’ve never been more busy. A lot of people are coming out, socializing, golf is probably one of the spots where you can do it in a safe, socially distanced environment (amid the COVID-19 pandemic).”

The warmish weather will stretch out for much of October, but get closer to chilly seasonal averages right before November hits — beyond that, Hasell said, is hard to say.

Manitobans should take advantage and use the time to prepare for whatever winter brings, she said.

“Check your property, check that you have what you need for winter… check your emergency kit or maybe now is the time to put one together.”

malak.abas@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: malakabas_