Sam, Judy struggle to close deal

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This article was published 20/10/2010 (5799 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The fact Sam Katz and Judy Wasylycia-Leis are still running neck and neck is not a big surprise, although the Leger Marketing poll that confirms it’s a tight race (38 per cent to 32 per cent, respectively) will encourage both candidates to work even harder as the finish line draws closer.

Mayor Katz clearly anticipated a stiff competition, even though he started the year with an approval rating of 72 per cent — based on a 2008 poll — and that other surveys showed he would win comfortably.

His presumed lead declined when Ms. Wasylycia-Leis announced her candidacy, but he still retained a commanding, though dwindling, lead in the polls.

Two-person mayoral races tend to be close if the challenger is well-backed and financed, and has some measure of name recognition. In 2002, for example, then mayor Glen Murray — who had a higher approval rating than Mr. Katz — was preparing for a smooth ride back into office because there were no real challengers.

But five weeks before election day, Al Golden unexpectedly entered the race to prevent a coronation. Still, it seemed like no contest, considering his late arrival and the fact he had recently been forced to resign his council seat after being convicted of income tax evasion.

Murray won with 51 per cent of the vote, but Mr. Golden garnered some 35 per cent, a remarkable showing against a popular mayor. Some people probably voted for the challenger because they thought he would make a good mayor, but many were simply registering their displeasure with the status quo.

Mr. Katz is facing a similar phenomenon. After six years in office, some voters are wondering if the city is going in the right direction and if the right person is at the helm. As with the 2002 campaign, there are also complaints about secrecy and ethics, even though Mr. Murray had campaigned in 1998 on a promise to end secrecy.

These may seem like rhetorical issues, but the Leger poll shows that voters place a high premium on honesty, integrity and openness, which is not to suggest that either Mr. Katz or Mr. Murray were dishonest and secretive, although incumbents are vulnerable to those kinds of allegations.

Mr. Katz’s challenge is even greater because Ms. Wasylycia-Leis is a formidable candidate with considerable support. And with nearly 30 years in public life, she also has name recognition.

With a week left to go and 18 per cent of voters undecided, neither candidate has been able to close the deal, evidence that each of them has weaknesses, as well as strengths.