Mr. Selinger cannot continue this way

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This article was published 29/10/2014 (4078 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitobans need and deserve a stable cabinet led by a decisive premier who is not busy dealing with a backstabbing caucus. Greg Selinger did nothing Tuesday to alleviate concerns he will be able to lead, even after mustering a sad defence of his leadership fully four days after allegations first levelled in the Free Press revealed there are real problems in the NDP today.

And in his moment, he stood defiant, insisting he was not going anywhere. Wrong call, Mr. Selinger. The premier is painfully mistaken in thinking he can cobble together enough support among caucus and the feeble few cabinet ministers still standing behind him. With his bench strength near gutted, he is in poor shape to see the government through to the next election, which may be 18 months away.

Mr. Selinger remains premier today, but only nominally. He made the wrong decision Tuesday in deciding to fight the revolt by a good chunk of his front bench — Finance Minister Jennifer Howard, Justice Minister Andrew Swan, Municipal Government Minister Stan Struthers and Health Minister Erin Selby. Jobs and Economy Minister Theresa Oswald offered faint sympathy for the man.

Behind him at the news conference Tuesday, 15 tin soldiers stood steadfast in support, including a rump of his cabinet, six ministers of 19. And there were nine caucus members that once had a snowball’s chance of making it into cabinet. Mr. Selinger made clear he would be shuffling the deck; this is golden hour of long-shot odds.

That, however, makes for mere scraps to stitch together a cabinet. and that’s the problem: The NDP leadership has lost its wind.

This is an inevitable result of a decline that began in force in 2013, although Mr. Selinger’s personal polling results since he took the helm have been dismal. The government itself began losing the confidence of Manitobans after successive failures to beat back deficits, to halt the blowing of budgets and the rising debt since 2009.

But nothing tested Manitobans’ faith so much as the grand deception.

Cabinet ministers, caucus members and party executive conspired to force Mr. Selinger’s hand Tuesday — his finance minister and her predecessor, Mr. Struthers, were first out of the blocks among cabinet members to publicly pull support and urge the premier to resign — but there can be no mistake Greg Selinger is mortally wounded by his own hand.

He pulled the pin from the political grenade when he raised the PST by a percentage point last year. It was, after all, the premier himself who said in the 2011 provincial election campaign that anyone who suggested he would raise taxes once returned to office was “ridiculous.” Pure nonsense. “Everybody knows that.”

The read-my-lips moment was well-remembered by Manitobans who, in successive opinion polls since the 2013 budget’s bombshell, have loudly registered their anger and disgust.

The way forward for the NDP is a problem for the NDP. It sounded Tuesday as though the premier-in-name could see a leadership review coming his way.

The conundrum before Manitobans, though, is the fact they are left now with a provincial government in disarray, a leader with weak support such that he is scraping bottom for cabinet ministers while eyeing a rear-guard threat from a majority of caucus.

This is bad news for the provincial economy, which must be Broadway’s priority now amid turmoil and uncertainty. Manitoba has seen its economic growth projections repeatedly revised and lowered; its debt-rating outlook was recently cut by Moody’s Investment Services, precisely because the deficit looks like the proverbial albatross.

Mr. Selinger is in no position to manage this. Further, it would be inappropriate for a premier so obviously hobbled to present a throne speech next month that charts an aggressive legislative or fiscal agenda.

The nearing throne speech cannot be supported by a majority of the caucus standing against his leadership. The NDP will have to use this political reality to pressure Greg Selinger to leave, or risk triggering an election.