Harper’s survival: Outspend, outlast, outrage

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/08/2015 (3747 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Here we go again. Our sixth election campaign in 15 years has officially begun. Prime Minister Stephen Harper took advantage of his position and dropped the writ earlier than expected in order to tilt the board in his favour, obliterating his earlier take that fixed election dates provide fairness for all the parties involved. Granted, the date of the election remains the same — Oct. 19 — it’s just that by visiting the Governor General early, he has extended the campaign to the longest campaign in modern history, so he can outspend, outlast and outrage Canadians.

Mr. Harper dropped the writ on Sunday, making that long walk to the Governor General’s office and sparking what many are saying will be Canada’s most expensive election. The election spending cap on this 79-day campaign is now around $50 million, nearly twice the amount had the campaign been restricted to the normal five weeks.

It would appear the Tories are hoping their deep pockets will allow them to outspend their opposition, who no doubt are feeling the additional stress with a campaign that is more than twice as long as expected.

More money needs to be spent now on renting campaign office space and equipment, including desks, phones and supplies. Additionally, the Conservatives have a stronger complement of political staffers they can “encourage” while on leave to volunteer their time and services to work the election. The Liberals and the NDP don’t and thus will have to rely on volunteers willing to give up their free time or forgo their vacation to help. A longer campaign period seriously diminishes the volunteer pool, making the logistics of running an election even tougher. As any seasoned politician knows, campaigns are won and lost on the strength of a well-orchestrated volunteer commitment.

As well, the early writ drop brings a limit to the third-party ads that have started to hit the airwaves. Prior to the writ, third-party organizations such as unions, labour groups and others could spend money on advertising unabated. After the writ, they face a spending cap of about $200,000. Of course those caps also affect third-party advertisers in support of the Conservatives as well, but no matter.

To be fair to Mr. Harper, he’s doing what a good politician needs to do. He’s dropping the writ at a time when his party seems to be experiencing a small bump in its polling numbers. Some polls are suggesting the Conservatives are seeing a small increase while the Liberals and the NDP slide. There have been suggestions this is tied to the universal child care benefit cheques that were sent out late last month followed by a tawdry Twitter campaign extolling Canadians to tweet when they received the cheque.

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The good news is now that the election campaign is officially on, the process falls under the control of Elections Canada, which can monitor the parties’ activities and ensure rules aren’t being broken. But there appears to be no love lost between Mr. Harper and Elections Canada, particularly after the Tories tinkered with changes to Elections Canada legislation that do not fully address concerns regarding election fraud. In particular, Elections Canada has made it clear it needs stronger legislation to compel witnesses to testify when electoral fraud is being investigated. So bringing the campaign under the Elections Canada umbrella sounds great on paper, but the new rules may have no teeth.

Meanwhile, Mr. Harper may well be hoping Canadians don’t pay too close attention to the campaign shenanigans, opting instead for warm beaches and cool drinks in the dog days of August, because the Conservatives will have to once again deal with the Senate scandal as the fraud trial for Sen. Mike Duffy (now back on the payroll because of the writ drop) continues. Star witness Nigel Wright, Mr. Harper’s former chief of staff is set to appear in court Aug. 11. That’s not exactly going to be positive press for a prime minister who hopes to run in part on his record of accountability.