Point Douglas result hardly reason for celebration

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 15/06/2017 (3045 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Did somebody really say, “We’re back!”?

One can understand and forgive the jubilation of NDP candidate Bernadette Smith after her decisive victory in Tuesday’s byelection in Point Douglas was confirmed. Hard work was rewarded by a positive outcome, and the New Democrats held onto a seat in the provincial legislature that has been squarely in their column for as long as anyone can remember.

The still-leaderless Liberals turned in a creditable second-place showing, and the ruling Progressive Conservatives, who had high hopes of at least loosening the NDP’s white-knuckled grip on Point Douglas, finished a distant and disappointing third.

It was, no doubt, a happy evening for Ms. Smith and the New Democrat faithful. But in the current provincial-politics context, bellowing a party-resurgence pronouncement about the NDP seems positively Costanza-esque in its comedic folly.

Ms. Smith’s boisterous “We’re back!” victory-speech sentiment — an apparent declaration that the byelection result somehow signals the NDP is suddenly on the rise and Premier Brian Pallister is about to “feel the pain” of an orange-tide revival — requires an immediate and clear-eyed reality check.

Tuesday’s result, while certainly a reaffirmation of the NDP’s support in a stronghold constituency, hardly qualifies as an emphatic statement about anything. Byelections, by their very nature, are widely ignored affairs, and this one featured a voter turnout — less than 33 per cent, unofficially — that might charitably be described as disappointing.

And if the tepid turnout totals weren’t enough of an indicator that nobody involved should consider themselves back from anywhere or anything, consider the NDP’s actual ballot-box performance: New Democrats had never, before this byelection, captured less than 52 per cent of Point Douglas’ votes; Ms. Smith’s unofficial winning margin had her at 44 per cent.

Of the riding’s 10,761 registered voters, a meagre 3,484 bothered to cast ballots; 1,534 threw their support in Ms. Smith’s direction, which translates to less than 15 per cent of available votes. Given the math, one might be inclined to hold back on the high-fives.

So despite holding the seat, the NDP might be well-advised to consider Tuesday’s outcome as modest setback rather than a joyous “We’re back!” Even in orange-dyed-in-the-wool Point Douglas, enthusiasm for the New Democrat message is, at very best, muted.

Still, there is reason to discern a glimmer of hope on the pumpkin-hued horizon. Despite its leadership race remaining — for the moment, at least, and certainly until Steve Ashton publicly makes up his mind — a one-candidate affair, the NDP finally has a figurehead in the person of Wab Kinew with whom prospective 2020 voters can identify, and about whom they can form opinions, for better or worse.

As a merciful result, in the lead-up to this fall’s long-awaited leadership vote, the NDP brand is no longer the Greg Selinger brand. Bygones, and all that. But that’s about as far as any post-byelection sense of celebration should extend. It’s business as usual back on Broadway, and the Pallister government will continue to use the robust majority it was handed by voters fed up with NDP infighting and ineptitude to drive forward its austerity agenda.

As for New Democrats, well, they’re back, baby — back in the opposition benches, back in a position of virtually no power and back in most Manitobans’ bad books, for as many terms as it takes for voters to decide it’s the Pallister bunch’s turn for an electoral timeout.