GOP can’t seem to beat the Trump card

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/08/2023 (764 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The back of the MAGA camel may well be unbreakable.

Former U.S. president Donald Trump found himself the target of a fresh criminal indictment Tuesday — bringing his total to three — over accusations regarding efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 election, as well as events leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

Three criminal indictments for a former U.S. president is extraordinary. But is it enough to shake Trump’s grip on Republican voters? The data show it may not be.

A New York Times / Siena College countrywide poll show the charges Trump faces aren’t enough to shake some voters’ belief in him, even if they think he’s guilty: of those surveyed, 17 per cent of those who prefer Trump over current President Joe Biden believe he has committed crimes or is even a threat to U.S. democracy.

Of the personalities currently expected to run in the Republican primary, Trump is far and away the frontrunner: the data show his support at 54 per cent among the likely primary electorate, dwarfing his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Others believed to be in the running, even Trump’s former vice-president Mike Pence, flail with single-digit support numbers.

If this information comes as a surprise, let it be the last time: it should be clear by now to anyone paying attention to the U.S. political landscape that Trump’s success and failure as a politician have wildly different criteria than any of his political forebears in the GOP.

When he descended the Trump Tower escalator to launch his political project and decried Mexican migrants as “criminals” and “rapists” it didn’t kill his campaign in its bed. When he was caught on tape bragging of groping women, it didn’t keep him from the White House.

And when he lost in 2020, he claimed the election was stolen, with no evidence to prove it, and some believed him. And not only did they believe him, some Trumpians — particularly the more fringe conspiracy-minded — took the extra step of mythologizing him, imagining him as only a temporarily thwarted hero, an Arthurian figure who will one day return to Make America Great Again just as soon as he’s healed his wounds in Avalon — er, make that Mar-a-Lago.

He famously boasted he could shoot someone in the streets of New York City and lose no support, and so far that seems on the money.

He has proven impervious to criticism and censure — where other politicians would offer shame-faced apologies and maybe resign, Trump declares his critics are simply losers and waves it away with his hand.

Because of all this, the GOP is irrevocably tied to Trump. His base, a not-insignificant slice of GOP voters, is behind him no matter what, and his contenders remain tethered (more or less) to now-outdated ideas of electability. In MAGA world, flattery for the base and revulsion for the enemy, with a dash of entertaining spectacle, rule the day. Who cares about policy, anyway?

The GOP establishment, now fully aware Trump’s way of doing things is a threat to the former neoconservative order, has thus far failed to push the message that it’s time to vote for a more serious or substantial candidate. Like the Democrats, they make the mistake of believing his devotees can be talked out of their support.

Like the Democrats, they may gesture at his not-as-advertised business successes, his election failure, his many personal scandals. They will desperately point out the emperor has no clothes, clueless to the fact his followers are well aware of his nakedness and support it.

Short of a criminal conviction that keeps him out of the race, Trump is and will likely remain the frontrunner for another run at the White House. The GOP is Trump’s party now. The Republicans are just living in it, much to their detriment, and to everyone else’s.