Province should reassess promises

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 13/12/2023 (719 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba’s New Democratic Party is riding high in public opinion polls. It’s not a surprise. New governments usually enjoy a honeymoon period following an election.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll shows Premier Wab Kinew and the NDP have the support of 51 per cent of Manitobans, up from 45 per cent in the Oct. 3 provincial election.

That goodwill won’t last forever. Support for the party will be determined in the future by how well it performs in office. It doesn’t take long for people to sour on government when the priorities of politicians are out of step with the public.

The former Progressive Conservative government learned that the hard way after cutting funding to front-line services, reducing taxes when few demanded it (resulting in larger-than-expected deficits) and mismanaging the province’s heath-care system. It forced their leader, former premier Brian Pallister, out of office after only five years in government and caused the party to lose power two years later.

If the NDP government wants to avoid those pitfalls, it will have to make prudent decisions that align with the public interest. That includes adapting to changing circumstances, even if it means not implementing some of its election promises.

The Probe Research poll not only showed that the NDP is enjoying strong public support right now, but also that Manitobans don’t expect the new government to make good on its election pledges. While that level of cynicism in politics may be problematic on one level, it’s also a signal that people are less concerned about a party’s campaign promises and more interested in good governance, even if it means rethinking some election promises.

That is something the NDP should give serious thought to as it evaluates its campaign pledge to implement the former PC government’s tax cuts, which are scheduled to come into effect in 2024.

Cutting taxes and reducing the provincial government’s own-source revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars a year while running large deficits is clearly bad policy. It will increase the provincial government debt, spook credit rating agencies (who determine the province’s credit rating) and leave fewer resources available for front-line services.

When the NDP made the tax-cut pledge during the provincial election campaign, it did so with the understanding that Manitoba Finance was projecting a $363-million deficit for 2023-24. There was a reasonable expectation that a growing economy and higher federal transfer payments would produce sufficient revenues to finance more spending on front-line services, while still allowing government to cut taxes and balance the books in four years.

However, much has changed since then. Manitoba Finance is now projecting a deficit of $1.6 billion this fiscal year, owing largely to plummeting Manitoba Hydro revenues and lower projected tax revenues. The argument that deep tax cuts can be made while boosting spending on front-line services and eliminating the provincial deficit in four years is no longer realistic.

Consequently, government must adapt to those changing circumstances and make the best decision for Manitobans, regardless of what was promised during an election campaign. That means rethinking proposed tax cuts for 2024.

Kinew says it’s important that government honour its election campaign commitments. It is, but not if doing so causes more harm than good under changing circumstances.

Most Manitobans want government to make the right decisions based on the best available information. Cutting taxes while running a deficit of more than $1 billion runs counter to the public interest. Government should rethink whether keeping an election promise is really worth the harm it would cause.