Crime in Winnipeg — by the numbers

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This article was published 24/06/2024 (529 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The day when the Winnipeg Police Service releases its annual crime stats is always a busy news day. The statistical details are the closest things we have to a once-a-year empirical lens to try and make sense of the individual crimes that make the news and shape our views about our own safety in the city.

Egregious crimes, the horrendous and incomprehensible, tend to dominate news pages and conversations.

Teens attacking strangers at bus stops with machetes for no obvious reason: brazen armed robberies in shopping malls. Security guards stabbed while trying to stop shoplifters.

The most talked-about crimes end up setting the public tone for how safe we feel in our city, and whether we feel we are safer now than a year ago, or than five years ago.

The crime statistics from 2023, compared to past years, are mix of ups and downs. Overall crime is down: 2023’s 70,472 reported crimes is down 2.2 per cent from 2022, but still 8.6 per cent higher than the five-year average.

The year-over year numbers for property crimes has fallen by close to seven per cent. Shoplifting reports have shot up by 45.2 per cent over 2022, while thefts from vehicles dropped by almost 25 per cent.

It is, of course, an imperfect lens. The 70,000-plus reported crimes are exactly that — they don’t include crimes that may have occurred, but that people may not bother reporting any more, for a variety of reasons.

Fluctuations in the relative occurrence of different types of crimes can change with how opportunities change: a crackdown on the theft of catalytic converters is credited with causing the drop-off in thefts from motor vehicles, for example.

But in all the numbers, the most startling this year is the growth in violent crime, and more particularly, the growth in violent crime by youths.

This year’s statistics show a growth of 12.1 per cent in violent crimes (driven by an increase in assaults and robberies), while violent crime by youth rose by almost 16 per cent over last year, and 43 per cent over the five-year average.

It is the flashing warning light in the statistics, the area that needs to be addressed most — and by “addressed most” we don’t mean the usual suggestions of longer sentences and harder time.

Young people are not just smaller adults. They react in different ways to peer pressure and belonging, and, with their brains at an awkward stage in the midst of development, react with sheer emotion rather than careful calculation. One of the pillars of the justice system, where punishment is supposed to be effective because it deters people from committing a crime, is not effective on a person who isn’t even equipped to see the full repercussions of their actions. Teenagers fall right square into the middle of that demographic.

What’s needed is a clear effort to address the causes of youth violence, rather than simply addressing the fallout from it. Addiction, poverty, homelessness and a whole rank of other social ills are creating this growing violence, one that lashes out regardless of who the victim might be.

Young people finding an outlet in violent crime need other opportunities and a way out. But more: they need supports at the beginning of their lives, not after the fact.

The police agree: “We can’t arrest our way out of this problem,” Supt. Dave Dalal said when the statistics were released. “We need other solutions that are addressing the root causes.”

Otherwise, we’re just treating the statistical symptoms, and not the much deeper illness involved.

And that’s not a cure — it’s barely a Band-Aid.