The U.S. election just got more interesting

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/07/2024 (481 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What a weekend it was.

Last week wound up with U.S. President Joe Biden facing a COVID-19 diagnosis, while arguing throughout the week that he intended to continue standing for election in the next U.S. presidential race.

Not inconsequentially, the Republican National Convention had just ended, firmly cementing Donald Trump as their presidential nominee, and J.D. Vance as the vice-presidential pick. The convention predictably spent many hours bashing Biden for his age and recent poor performances, priming the pump for a campaign based on bashing the current president.

But Sunday, Biden put out a statement on social media saying he was stepping down from the presidential race and throwing his support and campaign finances behind Vice-President Kamala Harris.

A stream of Democrats announced they were backing Harris through Sunday and Monday, as the Harris campaign racked up an impressive US$60 million in new campaign donations. Scores of senators and members of Congress have endorsed her candidacy — exactly the kind of a “groundswell” of support that you’d expect to see effectively stage-managed as part of a mid-campaign change of leadership.

So what’s it all mean?

Well, mostly that we live in interesting times, where a U.S. presidential campaign has moved from a march of duelling arguments of incompetence to an electoral battle that’s much more challenging to predict.

Is the United States ready for a female president? Is it ready for a Kamala Harris?

And what of Donald Trump’s campaign? It has centred on Biden being old, infirm and out of touch. If Harris ends up being the Democratic nominee, as currently seems likely, Trump will be the cranky 78-year-old, constantly airing his grievances, and the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history, campaigning against an almost 20-years-younger Harris. Republicans repeatedly questioned Biden’s stamina — just what do they expect Trump’s stamina to be like during the next few gruelling months on the campaign trail?

Already, there are signs that Trump is uncomfortable with the current schedule for live debates between the presidential candidates — and Democrats are already playing up the debates as potentially featuring a skilled criminal prosecutor (Harris) versus a convicted felon (Trump).

There are, of course, wheels within wheels within political wheels.

Donald Trump and the Republican party are clearly facing an opponent they did not expect to be facing. Witness Trump’s own Truth Social posting after Biden stepped back: “So, we are forced to spend time and money on fighting Crooked Joe Biden, he polls badly after having a terrible debate, and quits the race. Now we have to start all over again. Shouldn’t the Republican Party be reimbursed for fraud in that everybody around Joe, including his doctors and the Fake News Media, knew he was not capable of running for, or being, President? Just askin’?”

Meanwhile, the Democrats are facing a very short timeline to get a candidate in place and set for what will be an extremely difficult campaign, having lost a tremendous amount of name recognition with Biden’s departure from the race.

All of it points to a frantic few months of campaigning on both sides, and something that has become the hallmark of modern campaigning, both in the United States and Canada — personal attacks, slurs, lies and misinformation all seem to be acceptable tools.

In the past, a candidate couldn’t afford to lie to voters about their actions, or the actions of other politicians.

Now, it seems to have become an acceptable method of political attack, either directly or through surrogate campaigners.

Get out your saltshakers — we’ll need to take quite a few grains with what we hear before November.