Reassessing NATO’s worth in the time of Trump

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 10/02/2025 (235 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

As much as one might try to remember U.S. President Donald Trump’s time in office is only temporary, the sheer volatility of his presence on the world stage tempts one to consider drastic actions with long-term ripple effects.

Case in point? The North Atlantic Treaty Organization known as NATO. How should Canada go about its role in the organization in the time of Trump 2.0? And should it have one at all going forward?

Canada has long been dogged by the struggle to meet its NATO defence spending commitments — two per cent of GDP. Liberal leadership contender Mark Carney declared last week he had a plan to not only meet that goal but do it before the date set by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

But Carney’s plan, even if it worked out, would still fall victim to the caprices of the alliance’s most powerful and necessary ally.

Trump, for his part, has decided two per cent of GDP is not sufficient. As in all things, he feels the U.S. is being cheated, and now wants NATO nations to commit to five per cent of GDP.

It’s an extortionate amount for many countries, at least ones with different intentions for how to spend public funds. It is not the rest of the world’s problem that the U.S. has long had a political habit of overspending on its military, funnelling hundreds of billions each year into a military-industrial complex regardless of the absence of a major enemy to fight. Even if Canada and other NATO nations somehow contributed five per cent of GDP per his demands, he’s likely to just ask for seven the next year.

But how much Canada or other NATO allies spend isn’t really the point. Trump simply seeks a pretext to what he wants to do anyway, which is leave the alliance altogether.

He said in December he will “absolutely” consider leaving the alliance if other nations don’t step up their spending. In February last year, he said he will refuse to defend NATO allies from Russia if they haven’t paid what he believes to be their dues.

These statements cannot be taken as mere bluster. He has already withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on climate change, and has previously pulled out of UNESCO. (the U.S. rejoined UNESCO in 2023.) On the first day of his second term, he signed an executive order pulling the U.S. from the World Health Organization. Trump is not a president who wants to deal with international obligations.

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NATO has been a long and successful military alliance, and one of which Canada has been proud to be part.

But we are faced with a question of what the alliance’s worth is in a time where its most powerful member is essentially declaring themselves apart from it; even if the U.S. remains a member, it is functionally “out” if it will not help when called upon. On top of that, the leader of our geographically closest NATO ally is repeatedly stating he wants to absorb this country into his own. Denmark, another NATO ally, surely has similar concerns as Trump repeats his intentions to obtain Greenland.

What is a military alliance worth if its biggest member starts to look like an emerging threat?

The recent tariff spat was a valuable lesson for Canadians, both its citizens and its elected leaders: we must learn to navigate a world in which our longtime close ally and trading partner is not just less reliable, or more volatile, but actually hostile to Canada. We must build other economic bridges.

As such, Canada must consider whether it should build new military alliances, too.