Little hope for an end to Ukraine’s plight

If Ukraine is to reach a new, peaceful era, that era is still at the end of a very long road.

Recent meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders were positive, but resulted in little. At particular issue is Ukraine’s expectation of security guarantees for itself should any kind of peace with Russia be struck.

Ukraine wants assurances that it will be able to deter itself from any future Russian aggression — meaning it expects to be helped in assembling a well-armed military, with supplies and training supplied by allies.

It is a reasonable request, as is a desire among European leaders for there to be a ceasefire between the two countries as peace talks are held. But there are two major problems: the United States’ inability to meaningfully involve itself in the conflict without provoking a more serious conflict; and Russia’s refusal to play ball on any of Ukraine and the rest of Europe’s requests.

Trump has been happy to insert himself into discussions surrounding a peace deal. He has met with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin separately, and expressed willingness to arrange a meeting between the two leaders — though such a meeting is unlikely to occur at this stage, with or without Trump. But, Ukrainian hopes of direct military support from the U.S. are bound to be frustrated. Trump has said he will not deploy U.S. troops to Ukraine, which is actually a wise move. A NATO nation appearing on the ground fighting alongside Ukrainian troops would escalate this war into a much more serious international conflict.

Beyond that, Russia refuses to meet Ukraine and its allies halfway; not only are they snubbing the idea of a ceasefire during peace talks (Russia is gaining ground and does not care to stop fighting) but it is also attempting to insert itself into discussions around Ukraine’s postwar security.

“To discuss security guarantees seriously without Russia is a road to nowhere,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, as reported in the Guardian, during a visit to Jordan.

That is an absurd notion. While Ukraine and its allies must acknowledge that Russia is not on its back foot in this war, and therefore has some leverage as talks of peace continue, Russia has no right to any say in how Ukraine can and must secure itself in the future.

Though it may be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia is the aggressor in this war, and security guarantees for Ukraine revolve, at present, entirely around repelling Russia. No one would think to invite a fox to discuss how the henhouse doors should latch. The same goes for China, an ally of Russia’s in the war, which Moscow also wants to be one of Ukraine’s security guarantors. Its associations with the aggressor in this conflict mean it cannot have a seat at the table, either.

Given the boldness of Russia’s demands, it seems they have made these claims not in the expectation that they will get what they want, but because they are likely to be rebuffed, thus justifying their continuation of the war on the grounds that their demands have not been met.

It is a tragic situation for the Ukrainian people and endlessly frustrating for the country’s supporters, but the reality is that at this stage of the war, Russia has no desire — or need — to end this conflict or cede any ground.

Unless Ukraine and its allies quickly find a way to put Moscow in a much more vulnerable position, a peaceful Ukraine looks to be a very long way off.