Canada loses credibility on emission reductions

If there were any doubt that Canada is falling behind on climate action, the latest emissions data should put it to rest.

The federal government’s annual greenhouse gas inventory, released with little public attention last week, shows emissions declined by just 0.3 per cent in 2024. That is not a meaningful reduction. It is a stall.

After more than a decade of promises to bend the emissions curve, Canada is barely nudging it. Total emissions now sit at 685 megatonnes — only 10.3 per cent below 2005 levels.

Meanwhile, the country has committed to cutting emissions by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030. Closing that gap would require reducing another 227 megatonnes in six years.

Nothing in the current trajectory suggests that will happen.

The muted rollout of the report only underscores the problem. Not long ago, these annual inventories were treated as major events, complete with news conferences and messaging designed to highlight progress.

This time, there was no announcement from Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin, no attempt to explain the near standstill and no acknowledgment that Canada is drifting further off course.

Instead, the minister’s office pointed to future measures and long-term strategies, arguing the report demonstrates Canada can grow its economy while reducing emissions. That argument grows thinner with each passing year of minimal progress.

The data show why. While emissions declined in sectors such as electricity, transportation and buildings, those gains were offset by increases in oil and gas and agriculture.

The oil and gas sector alone accounts for about 30 per cent of Canada’s total emissions and remains the single largest obstacle to meeting national targets.

The policy backdrop is also shifting in ways that raise further doubts. The 2024 data predates Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent decisions to cancel the consumer carbon price and strike a deal with Alberta that could lead to scrapping the emissions cap on oil and gas production.

Those moves may be aimed at strengthening the economy, but they risk weakening the already insufficient framework for reducing emissions.

There is nothing wrong with adapting policy to changing economic conditions, but removing key climate tools without clearly demonstrating how their impact will be replaced invites skepticism, both domestically and internationally.

That skepticism will follow Dabrusin as she heads to meetings with G7 environment ministers in Europe. Canada is expected to reaffirm its commitment to the Paris Agreement and its 2030 targets. Yet the numbers tell a different story. A 10 per cent reduction over two decades places Canada among the weakest performers in the G7.

Other countries are grappling with similar challenges, as federal officials have noted. But many are making faster, more substantial progress.

Canada, by contrast, continues to rely heavily on future promises while current results lag.

The path forward is not complicated, even if it is politically difficult. Emissions from oil and gas must be meaningfully reduced, not merely managed at the margins.

Methane regulations are a start, but they are not a substitute for broader action. Investments in clean energy, electrification and public transit must accelerate. Policies must be aligned and sustained long enough to drive real change.

The risk now is that incremental gains will be presented as success, masking the scale of the challenge. A 0.3 per cent reduction may technically move the needle, but it does not alter the trajectory in any meaningful way.

The latest emissions report is not just another set of numbers, it is a measure of credibility.

Right now, that credibility is wearing thin.