Delta Plus variant confirmed in Manitoba

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This article was published 11/08/2021 (1661 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A new mutation of the Delta variant has made its way to Manitoba.

Three cases of AY.3 — known as Delta Plus — have been confirmed in provincial data released Wednesday. The cases are all in the Interlake-Eastern health region, and the first of the three infected Manitobans tested positive July 17, a provincial spokesperson said Wednesday.

Two of the three individuals have recovered and one case is still considered active. The results were confirmed as Delta Plus via genomic sequencing, the province stated.

No other details were released about how the novel coronavirus variant was contracted or spread in Manitoba.

Delta Plus, which shares many of the same spike-protein mutations as the Delta variant, was listed as a variant of concern in Canada on July 20. It appeared in India in June, after the Delta variant spread rapidly and caused widespread harm.

AY.3 is one sub-lineage of Delta Plus, but it’s not yet known whether it is more contagious or more dangerous than the Delta variant.

Delta is not yet dominant in Manitoba, but it is driving a fourth wave in many Canadian jurisdictions. About 161 previously unreported cases of Delta were revealed in provincial data updated Wednesday. There have now been more than 800 cases of Delta in Manitoba since late April.

The provincial government has repeatedly promised to release its projections on the future transmission of the Delta variant, but has said it needs to be verified before being shared with the public.

This week, the deputy chief provincial public health officer didn’t directly answer when asked how Manitoba public health officials factored in Delta transmission when they crafted the new, relaxed public health orders that came into effect last week. A provincial spokesperson later told the Free Press the public health rules were eased based on Manitoba’s current risk, and modelling data was only one of many things considered.

Winnipeg epidemiologist Souradet Shaw, an assistant professor at the University of Manitoba, said data transparency is essential for public health communication. “These are difficult decisions and I think that being transparent and clear on why decisions are made, I think, is probably the best model to base your communications on.”

Mathematical models that forecast potential future spread of the virus can be most helpful, Shaw said — if they consider what we know about how the virus has spread in the past, how it’s spreading in other jurisdictions, and show reliable epidemiological data about the current situation.

“This is where tools like mathematical models can be really useful. We certainly cannot predict the future with 100 per cent accuracy, but because mathematical models can look ‘forward’ to future scenarios, they can at least take out a little bit of the uncertainty. As the saying goes, forearmed is forewarned,” Shaw said.

— with files from Michael Pereira

katie.may@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @thatkatiemay